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What is the US trying to accomplish in northeastern Syria with the recent oil deal? It's hard to say. Thread 1/ https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/05/politics/syria-secretive-oil-contract-delta-force-ambassador/index.html
Last Thursday during a hearing of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, Lindsay Graham asked Secretary Pompeo about efforts to secure Syrian oil. Pompeo admitted that a deal took “longer than expected,” but that an agreement had been reached and “implementation” had begun. 2/
Shortly thereafter, news leaked: the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) had made a deal with Delta Crescent Energy LLC, granting the company a concession to exploit oil in its territory. This includes most of Syria’s 2.5 billion barrels. 3/ https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2020/07/us-oil-company-deal-syria-kurds-kobani-turkey-russia-sdc-sdf.html
Very little is known about Delta, apart from what can be gleaned from its public filings. Partners include a GOP donor, an oil exec with experience in Syria, and a former Delta Force commando, who argued during a Fox appearance that the US had the right to exploit Syria’s oil. 4/
Last October, President Trump announced a surprise withdrawal of US troops from Syria, only to backtrack and announce the troops were staying in order to “secure the oil.” This deal would seem to cement Trump's position. 5/ https://energyfuse.org/take-the-oil-how-the-u-s-plan-in-syria-could-backfire/
While much has been written (some of it quasi-speculative), details regarding the deal remain murky. Those involved refuse to go on the record. The Syrian and Turkish govts have both declared the deal to be illegal. 6/ https://www.reuters.com/article/us-syria-oil-usa/syria-says-us-oil-firm-signed-deal-with-kurdish-led-rebels-idUSKBN24Y0FD
They have a point. Establishing legal title to the oil could be difficult, as international law stipulates Syrian oil belongs to the Syrian people through the govt. That probably won’t stop the Kurds and US companies from trying to move it. 7/
The US desire is to “modernize” the Syrian oil industry, re-establishing it as an economic support for the people in the aftermath of war: a mission to assist US allies against the Syrian dictator the US still outwardly regards as illegitimate. 8/ https://www.politico.com/news/2020/08/03/delta-crescent-energy-syrian-oil-391033
This language should be familiar to anyone who has studied US interventions in the region or Western oil capital, which deployed the language of a civilizing mission to justify control over oil resources. I can’t imagine anyone (esp. the Kurds) will take it too seriously. 9/
The oil is supposedly going to be sold to Iraqi or Turkish customers. There are links between the Syrian operation and the Iraqi Kurds. If true this would be one of the biggest moves towards asserting Kurdish autonomy since the failed move to annex Kirkuk in 2017. 10/
Finding a buyer in Turkey (which has a deal to move Iraqi Kurdish oil) could be difficult, as the Turkish govt regards the SDF and other Syrian Kurdish groups as terrorists. 11/ https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2020/08/syria-oil-deal-delta-kurds-sdf-kobane-backstory-turkey.html
There is no other export outlet without a deal with the Turks, who are currently flexing their muscles in the Med and Libya to secure rights to the region’s resources. Will they be tempted to take Syrian oil when a bigger bonanza lays to the West? 12/ https://www.wsj.com/articles/gas-finds-trigger-a-standoff-in-the-mediterranean-between-an-isolated-turkey-and-rivals-11596387600
Suffice it to say, the deal has a lot of potential obstacles. Legally, politically, strategically--this presents a mine-field for the US and its allies. Which brings me back to considering: why make this deal now 13/
The best theory to explain this move is two-fold. 1) it shows Damascus that it won’t get a piece of the oil without coming to some arrangement with the Kurds, and 2) it keeps President Trump invested in Syria, a conflict he seems actively opposed to. 14/
This deal provides the US with a reason to pressure Assad, using Syria's oil as leverage to move his govt away from Iran. The oil guarantees the President's support, as he has repeatedly expressed a desire to exit. But until more details surface, all we have are theories. End 15/
