1/ Your most underrated summer blockbuster: Presidential elections in #Belarus 9 August. Given massive fraud & brutal police crackdown, #Belarus is likely to have same president. But it is already a different country. A few thoughts before I have my vote (not) counted tomorrow:

2/ Unprecedented political & social mobilization of Belarusians. “For the first time we feel like we can change something” is not only about changing the president. It’s about taking control of big & small things in one’s life.

2a/ My favorite stories: grassroot mobilization to collect medical supplies during pandemic, meals for doctors, paying of fines, and job assistance for all those detained and fined for being part of protests.

3/ #Belarus protests are so Gandhian: No angry crowds setting buildings on fire or destroying property. Instead: cycling, playing music,staying in lines, waving ribbons,honking. This reality is stark contrast to gov. narrative that protestors are paid fighters staging civil war.

4/ #Belarus protests are also creative. It’s whack-a-mole game with the government, and the mole just refuses to go back into the hole regardless of how much it is hammered on.

4a/ Rallies cancelled? Belarusians turn a gov. organized concert or a football game into a protest. White-red-white flags symbolizing change forcefully removed from windows? White-red-white flower pots or drying white-red-white clothes becomes popular.

5/ Rallies are so popular that outside observers (&the government) cite organizational skill &planning of indep. candidate’s staff (or foreign campaign planners). But it looks like there’s much more spontaneity &ad hoc channeling of chaos than masterminding, from home or abroad

6/ For most #Belarus|ians, it’s not geopolitical elections. It’s not articulated as pro-West v. pro-Russia. It’s anti-regime and pro-better life & better country. Most people want to have good relations with both West and Russia without demanding to join either the EU or Russia.

7/ But it is a geopolitical elections for both Russia and EU. Relations w/Russia are rocky. Russia is very much alert & is ready to extend a “helping” hand if there is unrest. If Lukashenka manages to stay, working relations will continue but grudges are growing on both sides.

8/ Europe&US are not visible, but their reaction will be crucial. Many Belarusians have long found absence of sanctions on those in charge of brutal repression strange. If things turn even more sour, Europe&US will face the need to address violations of territorial integrity.

9/ Regardless of who is president, it won’t be smooth. For the first time, Lukashenka doesnot have a majority behind him. Polls are banned,but all extrapolations indicate this. He’ll have to cope with much more self-aware, mobilized, & politicized society & a plummeting economy.

10/ If somehow there is a change of government, rebuilding economy and governance structures will require decades of patience. But if we have this chance, we cannot afford to squander it.

11/ Protests are impressive &represent majority. But there is still a large part of the population that either supports Lukashenka or prefers peaceful stability to shock therapy & unfamiliar activism. They will be as much a part of the post-election country as those protesting.

12/ The main independent candidate – Tsikhanouskaia - is a woman. She, with two more women, are the face of elections. Paraphrasing her – hopefully – Canadian counterpart, because it’s 2020.