Let's talk some D'Andre Swift.

He feels like the forgotten man in this RB class and I am strongly opposed to it.

Is he a #bulletproofprospect?

Lets dive in.

Are people scared off by his size? I'd hope not.

He is 5'8 and 212 pounds. That's plenty big enough. From a size/speed/draft capital perspective He profiles closest to Deangelo Williams and then Ray Rice and MJD.

Those are some terrific comps.

The major fly in the ointment for most data based analysts is that he wasn't a true workhorse at Georgia.

Except Georgia wasnt going to give anybody a workhorse role. That's not their philosophy. https://twitter.com/RayGQue/status/1212518362921807872?s=20

So when we are looking at lightly used RB's what are we looking for?

Efficiency and pass catching work.

There are a couple prominent RB's in the NFL that fit this type right now. Alvin Kamara and Joe Mixon.

First things first, Yards Per Carry is not an RB efficiency metric. It is highly influenced by offensive line, down and distance, scheme, etc.

I use Graham Barfield's Yards Created metric for efficiency.

Swift was a standout. https://twitter.com/GrahamBarfield/status/1246186484140396544?s=20

From a high ceiling perspective receiving work is very important.

If you scroll through this thread from last year you will see that the high end dynasty RB's were usually big time pass catchers in college. https://twitter.com/DFBeanCounter/status/1143020175903490048?s=20

As a part time player at Georgia, Swift was a big part of the passing game.

Here he is compared to the RB's I mentioned earlier with the similar profiles.

One of the things I use to substitute in for a film grade for RB's is NFL dot com grades.

Swift was head and shoulders the best RB in this class per those grades.

His 6.78 grade means that he should be a quality starting RB in year 1. The other of the big 5 rb's were all in the "will be starter within first two years range".

The average RB taken in the 2nd round of the NFL draft has a 57% chance of having a top 24 season. Considering Swift went at 2.03 he is right on that 1st/2nd turn.

If you combine first and second hit rates below you get 69.5% hit rate.

Chart courtesy of the great @pahowdy

Once you stack his incredible profile on top of his draft capital I feel very comfortable with Swift being a productive fantasy player and have him ranked as such in my dynasty rankings on patreon.

I think Swift's efficiency on the ground combined with his proficiency through the air gives him the best ceiling/floor combo in this class.

The ONLY thing potentially holding him back is a Matt Patricia led offense but the ceiling truly is the roof. I think...