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someone asked me to look at illinois vs florida
several interesting things emerged
florida has an older population, but is less dense
they clearly have different seasonality
FL have had much lower per capita deaths and using real day of death data near perfect gompertz curve
several interesting things emerged
florida has an older population, but is less dense
they clearly have different seasonality
FL have had much lower per capita deaths and using real day of death data near perfect gompertz curve
florida shows no relationship between lockdown and deaths. they opened from 4/11 to june with no ill effects.
the curve started ramping in late june implying early june infections.
this is what hope-simpson latitude groupings predict for seasonality.
the curve started ramping in late june implying early june infections.
this is what hope-simpson latitude groupings predict for seasonality.
this seems to be yet more evidence that human interventions are not having any real effect on epidemic curves, which is, of course, just what all the standing guidelines had told us for decades. https://twitter.com/boriquagato/status/1280990976694083585?s=20
one surprising takeaway is that FL actually locked down HARDER than IL in terms of social mobility drop.
this may have a seasonal artifact in it though.
all are set to a feb baseline when beaches in FL are jammed and parks etc more used. in FL, august is a month to stay inside
this may have a seasonal artifact in it though.
all are set to a feb baseline when beaches in FL are jammed and parks etc more used. in FL, august is a month to stay inside
remove parks and public spaces from the series, and the two become nearly identical until july.
yet they got completely different disease peaks months apart.
this seems like more evidence that when it's your season, you get covid no matter what your non-pharma policies.
yet they got completely different disease peaks months apart.
this seems like more evidence that when it's your season, you get covid no matter what your non-pharma policies.
we're seeing this in the philippines https://twitter.com/boriquagato/status/1291076229081239557?s=20
and south america https://twitter.com/boriquagato/status/1290683624698843136?s=20
and the other southern states. https://twitter.com/Hold2LLC/status/1291800043796738048?s=20
this is just a seasonal pattern.
lockdowns and masks and travel bans and school closures have no effect on it.
cometh the season, cometh the virus.
these policies look to have been a $5 trillion ox sacrificed to poseidon to grant a safe voyage (but without the fun pageantry).
lockdowns and masks and travel bans and school closures have no effect on it.
cometh the season, cometh the virus.
these policies look to have been a $5 trillion ox sacrificed to poseidon to grant a safe voyage (but without the fun pageantry).
