Time to end the myth 60% of US car trips are a good basis for micromobility TAM.

The distribution of US light vehicle (car+SUV+truck+van) trips by average trip speed (mph), from NHTS 2017 raw, indicates/green <13% TAM based on the 8 mph ave speed of ebikes in the Netherlands.

Essentially, speed is more of a constraint than distance. Tens of millions of US households won't switch to cargo ebikes that take 4 times as long to get to and from Walmart et al, even if you build them protected bike lanes. Millions may, which would be very good & <10% TAM.

For confirmation, pre-COVID Austin escooter trips averaged ~5 mph and in their very best performing census tract (UT students), achieved ~6% trip share, which the graph above forecasts. Overall in their core service area, they achieved ~2% trip share. https://twitter.com/aniccia/status/1203710430562021377