All-Cause mortality in the USA had been trending back to normal since March but then began to rise again for a few weeks before resuming a rapid decline. This was not due to a "2nd Wave" but rather a 1st wave landing somewhere new:

Health & Human Services designates 10 regions within the US. Looking at all-cause mortality by region provides some interesting insights.

New England shows an obvious uptick in deaths from Covid, with peak week fatalities 65% higher than even a bad flu year. Deaths, however, quickly returned to normal and now appear to be at record lows: evidence that Covid deaths are primarily pull-foward?

NY & NJ is a picture of disaster. Deaths 3X previous peak mortality. While there has been a return to normal, there appears to be no evidence, yet, of pull-forward. The mild flu years preceding Covid don't begin to account for the excess deaths here.

In the mid-Atlanta, Covid looks like a very bad flu year:

In the Southeast, Covid isn't even a bad flu. Moderate at worst. Certainly not as bad as 2018.

The Midwest looks similar to the mid-Atlantic with Covid being equivalent to a bad flu year, coming off two very mild flu seasons.

The area centered on Texas looked to have escaped Covid in the Spring before seeing a late increase in mortality during July - but still not as bad as the 2018 flu and it appears to be rapidly returning to normal.

On the rural states of the southern Great Plains, nothing is happening. This has been a mild year for deaths.

Similarly, the Rocky Mountain states, especially outside of Denver, have seen what largely looks like a normal year for deaths. Can you see a pandemic in this data?

The Southwest (including California) saw a moderate uptick in mortality in July which has now ended. Similar to the Texas region, deaths are lower than 2018.

In the Pacific Northwest, nothing is happening. Not even a moderate flu year:

What does all this mean? So far, there have been two "waves" of fatalities associated with Covid: the first was truly impactful but very short-lived and centered around NYC, the second was moderate and also very short-lived, focused on states in the South.

The fact that the summer wave was massively less impactful than the early spring wave (without lockdowns) indicates that we are unlikely to ever see another NY. Either the virus has changed substantially or, more likely, our panic has subsided.

There remains a strong correlation between prior flu season severity and current Covid impact - without a susceptible population, Covid doesn't affect mortality. So, the rural Plains & mountain states, as well as Pacific NW should be OK.

Overall, it appears that Covid seasons are short-lived, moderating over time and, perhaps, complete.