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1/ So proud to share my @USIP special report on Disengagement and Reconciliation in Conflict-Affected Settings. It is my first long form publication that explores the important topic of how people leave violent extremism behind - https://www.usip.org/publications/2020/08/disengagement-and-reconciliation-conflict-affected-settings
2/ it elevates the #peacebuilding pieces that are often lost in a #counterterrorism frame. Here is the Twitter trailer:
It is possible, even in the most brutal and desperate conflict settings, for people to abandon violence and leave violent groups. Peacebuilders know this well.
It is possible, even in the most brutal and desperate conflict settings, for people to abandon violence and leave violent groups. Peacebuilders know this well.
3/ Counterterrorism is can learn how and stop fixating on #deradicalization. Why? First, persuading an individual to renounce radical ideological beliefs will at best have mixed and inconclusive results. We may never know what is really inside someone’s mind. Also beliefs change.
4/ We do not know what effectively changes a person’s mind because many factors contribute to the
formation of beliefs, just as many contribute to their abdication. Violent beliefs are also only sometimes predictors of violent behaviors. Especially in conflict settings where
formation of beliefs, just as many contribute to their abdication. Violent beliefs are also only sometimes predictors of violent behaviors. Especially in conflict settings where
5/ the idea of choice when joining a terrorist group is murky. People turn to violent extremism for other than ideological reasons—for safety, security, duress, sense of belonging—which often make participation in the group appear as the only viable option.
6/ Most pragmatically, people can have hateful, violent beliefs yet never act on them. Disengagement is thus possible even when someone continues to believe hateful things if they renounce violence and violent groups as a way of expressing that hate.
7/ We can learn from peacebuilding to help transform the individual attitudes, group relationships, and social ecosystems and structures needed to facilitate the effective disengagement and reconciliation of former members of violent extremist groups. The full piece details how.
8/ Most importantly, it is time to flip the script from risks to strengths and humanize prevention. For too long, we tried to understand why someone joined and think it might help prevent others from joining. However, we rarely ask why others did not join and seek to build those
9/ assets to shape more nonjoiners. The current "diagnosis" mindset also assumes that the reasons someone was initially aggrieved are the same that need to be addressed for them to leave. The existing approach looks at all of the potential violent extremist
10/ and tries to assess, based on their observable past behavior, how much risk they might pose if they were
to reenter the community. However, past actions are not the best indicators of future risk—because not only do people change, but also their ability to change depends on
to reenter the community. However, past actions are not the best indicators of future risk—because not only do people change, but also their ability to change depends on
11/ what options are available in the future. So what if we flipped it? If we asked that community what makes them strong? Shift the burden from trying to address every deficit and potential risk factor toward identifying resiliencies to bolster.
12/ Policies could amplify what is working and to build from existing structures rather than always seeking to reify a person or a community as deeply deficient and in need of new capacities. In a conflict setting, when few hands are clean, focusing on the future may be not only
13/ practical, but also the only real option. We might just be surprised that what makes someone or a community strong might just include how they reconcile with former violent members and form a new community. In the aftermath of bombs and sirens, explosions, and funerals, what
14/ makes people resilient in the face of the unimaginable circumstances might just defy reason. And it may be invisible to outsiders at first. But it likely will include some combination of local, authentic, human-centric, peacebuilding practices.
15/15 And please come and join us virtually on Wednesday to hear from those much smarter than me on How ISIS Really Ends https://www.usip.org/events/how-isis-really-ends
