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Over the past 30 years or so, Pennsylvania has been a decently blue state.
Since 2016, it's been slowly shifting to the right.
I found that pretty odd (why Trump of all people?)
Being the data scientist that I am, I want to take a closer look at what's going on in PA.
Over the past 30 years or so, Pennsylvania has been a decently blue state.
Since 2016, it's been slowly shifting to the right.
I found that pretty odd (why Trump of all people?)
Being the data scientist that I am, I want to take a closer look at what's going on in PA.
Note: I don't want to see Trump win at all.
I just love statistics/visualizations & I also want to be informed about the ever-changing political landscape.
Studying this lets me do both of those~
With that being said, here we go: (Thread, regular updates over time)
I just love statistics/visualizations & I also want to be informed about the ever-changing political landscape.
Studying this lets me do both of those~
With that being said, here we go: (Thread, regular updates over time)
Week: 7/27-8/3
The GOP out-registered the Democrats in Pennsylvania:
By 2,955
In EVERY county outside of 3 near Philly & 1 rural county, which they only lost by 1
Southwest PA...?
In all, the GOP has out-registered the Democrats in PA by **136k** since the 2016 election
The GOP out-registered the Democrats in Pennsylvania:
By 2,955In EVERY county outside of 3 near Philly & 1 rural county, which they only lost by 1Southwest PA...?
In all, the GOP has out-registered the Democrats in PA by **136k** since the 2016 election
Week: 8/3-8/10
The GOP out-registered the Democrats in Pennsylvania:
By 4,672 this wk
By 140k since 2016 election
In most urban areas, including Pitt & Philly(!)
I posted 2 maps, one w/ a stronger legend
I need y'all to understand how ridiculous southwest PA is being~
The GOP out-registered the Democrats in Pennsylvania:
By 4,672 this wkBy 140k since 2016 electionIn most urban areas, including Pitt & Philly(!)I posted 2 maps, one w/ a stronger legend
I need y'all to understand how ridiculous southwest PA is being~
Read this #Pennsylvania quote from a former Democratic strategist...
The Republicans are embracing the hell out of this quote lmao, their strategy seems to be turning non-urban PA into Alabama as much as possible
The Republicans are embracing the hell out of this quote lmao, their strategy seems to be turning non-urban PA into Alabama as much as possible
Month: 7/13-8/10
The GOP out-registered the Democrats in Pennsylvania:
By *15,005*
By 140k since 2016 election
GOP continues to dominate in southwest PA & northeast PA also looks good for them
Democrats dominating most Philly suburbs but lost some voters in actual Philly
The GOP out-registered the Democrats in Pennsylvania:
By *15,005*By 140k since 2016 electionGOP continues to dominate in southwest PA & northeast PA also looks good for them
Democrats dominating most Philly suburbs but lost some voters in actual Philly
I also looked at week-to-week registration over the past 4 weeks.
I wanted to see if the GOP's registration dominance in PA is consistent or just a 1-week thing and... look at all that red in the first map.
Southwest PA continues to be great for them but not the Philly suburbs
I wanted to see if the GOP's registration dominance in PA is consistent or just a 1-week thing and... look at all that red in the first map.
Southwest PA continues to be great for them but not the Philly suburbs
Week: 8/10-8/17
The GOP out-registered the Democrats in Pennsylvania:
By 2,569 this wk
By 143k since 2016 election
Notes:
Philly area continues to shun the GOP
Pittsburgh area (SW PA) continues to embrace them
Bucks county is *absolutely* in play for both D's/R's
The GOP out-registered the Democrats in Pennsylvania:
By 2,569 this wkBy 143k since 2016 electionNotes:
Philly area continues to shun the GOPPittsburgh area (SW PA) continues to embrace themBucks county is *absolutely* in play for both D's/R's
Did you know that in Pennsylvania, black people are **3x** more likely to be arrested for marijuana possession than white people?
Joe Biden & DNC rejected adding legalization to their platform, and Kamala Harris convicted 1500+ marijuana offenders.
Lol. https://graphics.aclu.org/marijuana-arrest-report/PA
Joe Biden & DNC rejected adding legalization to their platform, and Kamala Harris convicted 1500+ marijuana offenders.
Lol. https://graphics.aclu.org/marijuana-arrest-report/PA
Will have a few more map charts posted tomorrow 
http://pa.gov hasn't released anything since 8/17 but I have a few ideas about stuff I want to do
http://pa.gov hasn't released anything since 8/17 but I have a few ideas about stuff I want to do
From the 2016 election to 8/31/20:
The GOP out-registered the Democrats in Pennsylvania by 157,420
Southwest & Northeast PA: *rapidly* shifting right
Southeast PA: the opposite
Joe Biden went to SWPA to speak today. Looking at these charts- probably not a good idea..
The GOP out-registered the Democrats in Pennsylvania by 157,420 Southwest & Northeast PA: *rapidly* shifting right Southeast PA: the oppositeJoe Biden went to SWPA to speak today. Looking at these charts- probably not a good idea..
Week(s): 8/17-8/31
The GOP out-registered the Democrats in Pennsylvania:
By 14,066
By 157k since 2016 election
Notes:
Philly area --> 
Pittsburgh area & NEPA --> 
1 county in particular is driving the GOP train, and it's precisely not the one I thought it was
The GOP out-registered the Democrats in Pennsylvania:
By 14,066By 157k since 2016 electionNotes:
Philly area --> Pittsburgh area & NEPA --> 1 county in particular is driving the GOP train, and it's precisely not the one I thought it was
So, why does Northeast PA continue shifting red even though someone from NEPA is running for president?
Well... this seems to be general sentiment in that area, from what I've read.
Joe Biden doesn't seem to resonate with them.
Donald Trump does.
Well... this seems to be general sentiment in that area, from what I've read.
Joe Biden doesn't seem to resonate with them.
Donald Trump does.
Oh! Speaking of Luzerne county-
In 2016, Trump casually put up the best margin in Luzerne for a Republican since Nixon in 1972, when Pennsylvania went R+20.
This is what Biden's up against out here. Undoing a 25-point swing from his basement, w/ voter registration favoring GOP.
In 2016, Trump casually put up the best margin in Luzerne for a Republican since Nixon in 1972, when Pennsylvania went R+20.
This is what Biden's up against out here. Undoing a 25-point swing from his basement, w/ voter registration favoring GOP.
Looking at these voter trends, can't say this isn't surprising:
2 quick ones on advertising:
Trump's team just pulled out of OH/IA
OH: $18.4
IA: $5.8
Total: $24.2M (a LOT of money for the ad world)
Meaning $24.2M they'll be re-directing elsewhere. I imagine part of that is for PA. Speaking of which...
Trump's team just pulled out of OH/IA
OH: $18.4 IA: $5.8 Total: $24.2M (a LOT of money for the ad world)Meaning $24.2M they'll be re-directing elsewhere. I imagine part of that is for PA. Speaking of which...
As to where their Pennsylvania ad money is going:
"Among the campaign's top 10 ad markets nationwide from Labor Day to Election Day is the blue-collar Pennsylvania region of Harrisburg, Lancaster, York and Lebanon"
In central PA...
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-election/trump-s-pennsylvania-playbook-breaks-traditional-path-victory-n1239135
"Among the campaign's top 10 ad markets nationwide from Labor Day to Election Day is the blue-collar Pennsylvania region of Harrisburg, Lancaster, York and Lebanon"
In central PA...
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-election/trump-s-pennsylvania-playbook-breaks-traditional-path-victory-n1239135
Week: 8/31 - 9/7
The GOP out-registered the Democrats in Pennsylvania:
By 9,428
By 166k since 2016 election
Notes:
The GOP is putting a *LOT* of ad money into Harrisburg/Lancaster/York/Lebanon... it's paying off
Bucks county 
Just pure GOP dominance this week
The GOP out-registered the Democrats in Pennsylvania:
By 9,428By 166k since 2016 electionNotes:
The GOP is putting a *LOT* of ad money into Harrisburg/Lancaster/York/Lebanon... it's paying offBucks county Just pure GOP dominance this week
