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Hawaiʻi has handled Covid reasonably well. And I think it's an *extremely* tough time to be a public official. But yesterday's decision to jail people who go to parks and beaches on Oahu should be reexamined. @MayorKirkHNL @GovHawaii @HawaiiNewsNow @StarAdvertiser
If the outdoors was where Covid was spreading, we would have seen that by now in the data. We haven't seen that in Hawaiʻi. I can't find evidence that the outdoors is a major source of spread anywhere in the world. Looks like at least 95%, probably 99% of spread happens indoors.
Just to make sure I wasn't crazy, and that Hawaiʻi wasn't seeing something exceptional, I spoke to the Covid Team at City Hall and asked "Since there are no public reports of spread at parks and beaches, have there been episodes that haven't been publicized?"
They told me "No." The reason that they are closing parks and beaches is because "lots of people in groups at the beach haven't been wearing masks."
I encourage mask wearing and social distancing, but ironically, the fact that there has been no big spread at beaches in months even when people aren't wearing masks in large groups, is further evidence that the outdoors are a pretty safe place to be.
We've seen the data that the recent surge is led by superspreading events at indoor venues like bars, gyms, and churches. What to do about those is a tough decision I'm glad I don't have to make. But keeping the parks and beaches and outdoors open should be an easy decision.
Since March, around 5,000 people in Hawaiʻi have died. Only about 30 of them from Covid. Covid is dangerous and can spike, and we should give up important things if it can help. But we shouldn't give up important things if it doesn't help.
Some further reading about Covid and the outdoors:
https://wellcomeopenresearch.org/articles/5-83
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/daily-life-coping/beaches-pools.html
https://www.cdc.gov/pcd/issues/2020/pdf/20_0204.pdf
https://wellcomeopenresearch.org/articles/5-83
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/daily-life-coping/beaches-pools.html
https://www.cdc.gov/pcd/issues/2020/pdf/20_0204.pdf
