1/ Unpopular opinion...the San Francisco Bay Area is incredibly resilient, any “exodus” will be temporary (1-2 years) and overblown, rents and home prices will be at pre-pandemic highs in 3 years, so buy low! A thread…

2/ I moved to the Bay Area to start @ApartmentList a decade ago, and I still recommend the move to aspiring entrepreneurs, technologists and adventurers. Why? The people are amazing. Handshakes may go away but serendipity will not.

3/ Face-to-face work and chance encounters will keep sparking new ideas. While tech fuels ease of distance, we’re still betting on hubs. Seeing this in both hiring and layoff data (and, of course, #rentertrends).

4/ I’m just as fired up as the next person for more flexibility and #remotework. Who wouldn’t want to Zoom into a call from a wifi hotspot in Yosemite? However, hiring data shows tech jobs are falling far faster outside of existing hubs, thanks @indeed.

5/ Meanwhile, covid-related layoffs for tech companies were concentrated outside the Bay, per @coryweinberg @theinformation.

https://www.theinformation.com/articles/where-are-most-tech-layoffs-not-silicon-valley

6/ Remote work isn’t new. #WFH jobs have grown 7x the rate of office jobs since 2005 (from @iapopov and @chris_salviati). And tech hubs - not remote beaches and ski slopes - have the most people working at home.

7/ Those with ability to work remotely have an unexpected luxury and leg-up in the 2020 economy. Our research across top metros found @SFgov and @CityofSanJose top the list in share of local jobs that can be done remotely (almost 70% in both). Well done @LondonBreed, @sliccardo.

8/ This means more people were able to work through shelter-in-place, maintaining incomes that will soon be spent at local businesses again - a core of northern California’s vibrancy + bounce back.

9/ New and existing founders will soon be able to tap into a national, remote workforce easily, enabling starting up and scaling businesses at lower cost. But that doesn’t mean the centrifugal force of Silicon Valley will disappear.

10/ Renters and employees aren’t scared of dense cities either. From Q1 to Q2, Apartment List searches for moves to higher-density cities actually increased 4%. Cross-town moves to lower-density cities down 3%.

11/ So, the question I’ve been asked time and again: is SF hollowing out in COVID-times? Nope. In our search data, comparing pre- vs. prime-pandemic: 1) Same share of searchers staying in SF, 2) FEWER leaving Bay Area for other metros.

12/ ZERO evidence of Bay brain drain in our data. Renters looking to move aren’t looking far. 25% looking to leave SF going to SJ/Sacramento + many moves are temporary.

13/ The @CityofBoise is fantastic, but not seeing a #BayToBoise bump. Boise doesn’t crack top 25 SF renter destinations. No surge from SF to Salt Lake either, only 2% (lots from LA & Chicago, though). Full migration data at https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-renter-migration-report-2020-q2

14/ Few talking about many moving to SF. I’ve never seen the influx of rent concessions (e.g. 2 mo free rent!) from local property managers/owners, not to mention flexible lease terms. When supply-constrained markets go sideways, this happens. New cohort will seize opportunity.

16/ Sure, we all have friends riding out the pandemic closer to family, and maybe a few will stay. But what about stories not being shared? Or rising stars who haven’t moved here yet? There’ll always be a founder from #Ohio (cough cough) who wants to move to SV to build.

17/ So what do I think will happen? #SFBayArea will again be resilient, just as it was through all recessions I remember (even the crash it was responsible for--home values topped pre-dotcom crash levels by mid-2002).

18/ For now, rent growth will slow down, average speeds on the 101 will speed up, and the Bay Area will continue to be a great place to build a business, career, friendships and a family!

19/ Bottom line: greater remote work flexibility AND greater Bay Area innovation not at all at odds. I’m excited/planning for both! It’ll be a wild ride of reinvention for all of us. /End