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THREAD: Takeaway messages from our @IndependentSage weekly briefing today.
(TLDR: cases going up but slowly, act now, ditch central test and trace system, go local and drive cases down for opening schools)
1/9
(TLDR: cases going up but slowly, act now, ditch central test and trace system, go local and drive cases down for opening schools)
1/9
Confirmed cases have increased steadily over July - but relatively small increase. Is this just cos we are testing more people? 2/9
The NHS Test and Trace report (data up 29 July) suggests that *community* transmission was still going down over first two weeks of July, but up since then. This is not really a surprise given 4th July pub reopening & experience from other countries 3/9
We are further away from #ZeroCOVID - esp Rep of Ireland & Scotland have struggled this week with increased transmission from pubs & restaurants and among young people. We were much closer a month ago :-( 4/9
As ever - excellent contact tracing (FTTIS) is needed to support reopening - especially for reopening schools! But England system has *not* really improved in NINE weeks & is NOT good enough. Time for a radical rethink! 5/9
Countries with successful FTTIS have done it through local organisation - knowing yr local community, trust & being able to knock on doors crucial. They also SUPPORT people to isolate (financial & accommodation). We need to learn from them and do the same! 6/9
We tried the central system for 9 wks & it's not working. Regardless of the companies contracted, it's the WRONG DESIGN. Let's scrap the central system & use the resources on supporting local areas with their own efforts (e.g. Blackburn & Sheffield already doing this) 7/9
This is even more important as new research shows asymptomatic people as likely to be infectious as those with symptoms. Remember that younger people more likely to have no symptoms - FTTIS is best way of stopping asymptomatic people transmitting! https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamainternalmedicine/fullarticle/2769235 8/9
July and August should be easiest months to get cases down - people outside, not at work, not at school or uni. We MUST get cases down for autumn & cannot take August off. Cases are still low enough for us to succeed! Getting kids into school must be #1 priority. 9/9
PS1 here is our new report on how to reform contact tracing! https://www.independentsage.org/an-independent-sage-discussion-document-on-contact-tracing-and-self-isolation/
PS2 that higher transmission is concentrated in hotspots should make it easier to get cases down. It *is* possible!
PS2 that higher transmission is concentrated in hotspots should make it easier to get cases down. It *is* possible!
