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Some of my followers are taking this tweet as an indication I support lockdowns. No! I think the economic and social costs of lockdowns are too high compared with the benefits
But! If you lockdown, you need to do it correctly. The US did it terribly. Czechia did it right. THREAD https://twitter.com/jmhorp/status/1291549935087890438
But! If you lockdown, you need to do it correctly. The US did it terribly. Czechia did it right. THREAD https://twitter.com/jmhorp/status/1291549935087890438
What do I mean by "do it correctly"? If you choose the lockdown route, you need to use that time to do a few things. Primarily, expand both mask wearing (through either custom or mandates, I prefer custom) and testing (govt could play a role, or just get out of the way)
Czechia imposed a severe, but temporary shutdown in mid-March. The shutdown wasn't as severe as Italy, but the key is it was SHORT: just about 2 weeks for the worst of it, compared to over TWO MONTHS in Italy
US included for comparison, but it's complicated by state variation
US included for comparison, but it's complicated by state variation
And what did Czechia do with their two-week shutdown?
1. They very quickly got to universal mask use (through a mandate, yes, but also social pressure): https://www.euronews.com/2020/03/24/coronavirus-czechs-facing-up-to-covid-19-crisis-by-making-masks-mandatory
2. They increased testing capacity
1. They very quickly got to universal mask use (through a mandate, yes, but also social pressure): https://www.euronews.com/2020/03/24/coronavirus-czechs-facing-up-to-covid-19-crisis-by-making-masks-mandatory
2. They increased testing capacity
And what do you get from that? A per capita death rate that is about 7.5% of the US. Lately Czechia has been averaging about 2 deaths per day from COVID-19, compared with over 1,100 in the US. Adjusted for population, the death rate is TWENTY THREE times as high in the US
Again, I am not defending lockdowns as the optimal policy! But the US, for a wide variety of political and social reasons, chose one of the mostly costly methods of fighting the virus, and then didn't even use that time to get things right
This is also not about "opening too early." I don't think any amount of waiting would have got us to universal mask wearing, for a variety of reasons, especially in the hardest hit "second wave" states. And while we did increase testing, we clearly didn't increase it enough
