Sage has just published its estimates of the *indirect* effects of lockdown on mortality
6,000 excess deaths in March and April due to changes in emergency care
10,000 excess deaths in care homes, not directly due to covid
12,500 excess deaths due to people postponing routine operations etc
Short term gains from lockdown - 3,000 fewer deaths due to better air quality etc
18,000 medium term deaths due to the coming recession
15,000 long term deaths due to recession
Crucial point: deaths would have been a lot *more* they estimate if there had not been lockdown (or some form of it) - but that does not mean it is cost free.
Also, impossible to disentangle lockdown effects from counterfactual - not having lockdown would have also caused many indirect deaths.
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