1/6 If the success of lockdowns is proven by lower mortality in Denmark, Norway, and Finland than in Sweden, then this should hold true in the Oresund region crossing Denmark and southern Sweden. In fact, Covid-19 mortality across the region is about the same.

2/6 This is the culturally and geographically closest part of Scandinavia for cross-country comparisons. The Oresund bridge links Copenhagen (l) and Malmö (r), which both have a population density of about 4000 per square kilometre.(See https://shrtm.nu/Pd0m  and further links.)

3/6 The Capital and Zealand regions constitute the Danish side of Oresund and the Skane region the Swedish side. Most of the population lives in the metro areas of Copenhagen and Malmö, with smaller towns and sparsely populated rural areas outside.

4/6 The Danish side has 486 Covid-19 deaths, or 181 per million. The Swedish side has 272 deaths, or 200 per million. The Danish side was locked down for two months from mid-March, while the Swedish side was not. In this region at least, it seems lockdown made little difference.

5/6 It seems that the reason that Malmö has lower mortality than other parts of Sweden is that they succeeded in protecting the elderly in care homes--as in Denmark, Norway & Finland. In Stockholm there was earlier and quicker spread.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/06/14/inside-swedish-city-may-prove-countrys-strategy-right-along/

6/6 All this suggests that the higher mortality in the rest of Sweden was due to the situation in care homes rather than no lockdown. This is reinforced by a UK ONS study showing Sweden's mortality was 12th in Europe for the under-65 age group, a little above Finland and Norway.