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As expected, today's jobs report includes phantom jobs gains in state and local employment due to a technical Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) adjustment, NOT to a surge in hiring. S/L jobs are DOWN by 1 million compared to same time last year. 1/6
Each year, BLS adjusts the July jobs numbers upwards because teachers and others who work for schools and colleges are off for the summer, but still have their jobs. 2/6
This year, schools and colleges furloughed or laid off hundreds of thousands of workers in April and May because of the pandemic. So when BLS did its normal seasonal adjustment for July, it appeared as if state and local government jobs suddenly surged. Not so. 3/6
State and local government jobs have been crushed by the pandemic. They’re still down by over 1 million compared to July last year. And compared to February, they’re down 2.8 million, though a good share of that really is normal seasonal variation. 4/6
For comparison, states and localities cut just 750k jobs over the whole course of the Great Recession. 5/6
Unless the federal government steps up with substantial fiscal aid, states and localities will not hire back many of these workers and will permanently lay off more people. That would make the recession even worse. 6/6
