New paper ‘Minority Report’ with @gillwyness_econ documenting the accuracy and consequences of teacher predicted grades used in the UK university application process: 84% incorrect, 75% over-predicted. https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/09645292.2020.1761945?journalCode=cede20

However, ultimately high achieving from disadvantaged backgrounds are more likely to be under-predicted. These students are 10ppt less likely to apply to the most selective universities, and 6.9ppt more likely to enroll in a university in which they are over-qualified

This year due to COVID-19, no final A-Level examinations took place. So next week in England final A-Level grades for students will be released based on teacher predicted grades, adjusted for historic school performance.