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Survey update in #Israel - wonky thread based on 3 wknd polls (not mine), in light of elex talk.
1. Talk of "Likud plunge" overrated - that relates to brief phase of 40+ polling (seats) in late Apr - early June. Relative to 33-36/2019-20 elex, polling now shows 29-30 - still, this shows erosion as people toy w idea of challengers/angry at recent events
2. Hence both Yesh Atid & Yemina rising like balloons (Channel 13 survey shows 19 for each). When elex come round, my guess is these voters will gravitate once again towards big parties.
3. Interesting: In all 3 surveys, Yesh Atid + B/W combined get 27-29 - so before falling for misleading "BW crashing" narrative, note that their core constituency still there & nearly neck-neck w Likud (29-30); bet YA/BW leaders watching too & cd kiss/make up.
4. Finally, BB. Most polls now test job approval re: corona crisis - recent IDI showed 29% satisfied, now @kann_news consistent at 31%, while @newsisrael13 shows 35%.These are ~10-pt less than the stable 40-45% approval he enjoyed for years, thru investigations, indictment, etc.
5. All polls show right-wing bloc (relig & right parties, w/o Lieberman) at 62-63 seats at present. My guess? Bennett's vote is inflated, after meat grinder of a campaign, right-bloc will struggle again for 60, no fast gov, no fast immunity law, no easy way out for BB.
Bottom line: Opposition parties in shambles, shd not want elex. Likud/BB - will be blamed for elex (see Radio103 poll), unlikely to gain, cd suffer losses, & elex still won't keep BB from the law (have to put entire judiciary in jail first).
So forget about the citizens (who gives a FF about citizens?) It's bad for the politicians. Guys, I beg you, please don't do it. (polls cited: https://13news.co.il/item/news/politics/state-policy/survey-1106039/ & https://www.kan.org.il/Item/?itemId=75546 & https://www.maariv.co.il/news/politics/Article-782342
