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We added 1.8 million jobs in July, but our jobs level remains in absolute crisis—we lost so many jobs in March and April that we are still 12.9 million jobs below where we were in February. 1/
THIS IS VERY IMPORTANT: Do not report monthly changes in state and local government jobs right now. They are totally distorted by seasonally adjustments. Look at net changes from February instead. Since February, we are down 1.2 million state and local jobs. 2/
To bolster our weak and precarious economy, Congress must get massive aid to state and local governments and extend the unemployment insurance provisions in the CARES Act. 3/ https://www.epi.org/blog/without-federal-aid-to-state-and-local-governments-5-3-million-workers-will-likely-lose-their-jobs-by-the-end-of-2021-see-estimated-job-losses-by-state/ https://www.epi.org/blog/cutting-ui-benefits-by-400-per-week-will-significantly-harm-u-s-families-jobs-and-growth-3-4-million-fewer-jobs-will-be-created-over-the-next-year-as-a-result/
The official unemployment rate was 10.2% in July, higher than any unemployment rate we saw in the Great Recession. 4/
And of course, the unemployment rate is not reflecting all coronavirus-related job losses. In July, there were 16.3 million workers who were officially unemployed… 5/
and there are an additional 1.3 million workers who were temporarily unemployed but who were being misclassified as “employed not a work.” There were also 5.1 million who were out of work as a result of the virus but were being counted as having dropped out of the labor force. 6/
Altogether, that is 22.8 million workers who were either officially unemployed or otherwise out of work as a result of the virus. If all these workers were taken into account, the unemployment rate would have been 13.8% in July. 7/
None of that means @BLS_gov is cooking the books! I know this administration has shown over and over they will lie about facts and numbers, but that’s not happening at BLS. BLS’s methods are transparent and consistent. 8/
Our history—and present—of white supremacy dramatically affect the labor market. B/c of things like occupational segregation, discrimination, & other disparities rooted in systemic racism, this recession is hitting Black and Brown workers harder than white workers. 9/
In July, the official white unemployment rate was 9.2%, the Black unemployment rate was 14.6%, the Asian unemployment rate was 12.0%, and the Hispanic unemployment rate was 12.9%. 10/
How do July’s jobs numbers square with July’s unemployment insurance (UI) claims? The UI claims data suggest that as of July 18 (the reference week for the jobs data), there were 31.3 million workers claiming unemployment benefits in all programs. 11/ https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf
HOWEVER, 31.3 million is very much an upper bound on the number of people claiming UI, because there is double counting of UI claims (this blog post has more on that). 12/ https://www.epi.org/blog/unemployment-insurance-claims-remain-historically-high-congress-must-reinstate-the-extra-600-immediately/
Also, some people with jobs who have reduced earnings are on “partial” UI, so they are not counted as unemployed. We don’t have national data on this, but in CA, 10.6% of UI claimants are on partial UI (i.e. are employed but have reduced earnings). 13/ https://www.capolicylab.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/August-6th-Analysis-of-UI-Claims-in-California-During-the-COVID-19-Pandemic.pdf
Today's #JobsReport is another reminder that the $600 increase in weekly UI payments is not a work disincentive. In the last 3 months, while the $600 was in place, more than 9 million people went back to work (this blog post also has more on that). 14/ https://www.epi.org/blog/unemployment-insurance-claims-remain-historically-high-congress-must-reinstate-the-extra-600-immediately/
