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1/
Today's (8-7) report on NC's requests for absentee by mail (ABM) ballots:
Total requests among reporting 95 (out of 100) counties: 144,475
Up 6,505 over yesterday
This same day in 2016's requests: 21,873
2020 is 6.6X ahead of 2016's #s for same day
#ncpol #ncvotes
Today's (8-7) report on NC's requests for absentee by mail (ABM) ballots:
Total requests among reporting 95 (out of 100) counties: 144,475
Up 6,505 over yesterday
This same day in 2016's requests: 21,873
2020 is 6.6X ahead of 2016's #s for same day
#ncpol #ncvotes
2/
2020 weekly numbers generated in NC requests for absentee by mail ballots.
We're currently in week 32 (week 1 = Jan 1, 2020) of receiving requests from NC voters for an absentee by mail ballot.
#ncpol #ncvotes
2020 weekly numbers generated in NC requests for absentee by mail ballots.
We're currently in week 32 (week 1 = Jan 1, 2020) of receiving requests from NC voters for an absentee by mail ballot.
#ncpol #ncvotes
3/
2020 vs. 2016 same week by week cumulative totals of NC absentee by mail ballot requests
2020 met 2016's totals in mid-May and has far-exceeded since
Again, NC is 6.6X ahead of same day #s in 2016
As of 8/7: 2020 #s = 62% of 2016 total requests of 231K
#ncpol #ncvotes
2020 vs. 2016 same week by week cumulative totals of NC absentee by mail ballot requests
2020 met 2016's totals in mid-May and has far-exceeded since
Again, NC is 6.6X ahead of same day #s in 2016
As of 8/7: 2020 #s = 62% of 2016 total requests of 231K
#ncpol #ncvotes
4/
Party registrations for same day ABM request totals in 2016 vs. 2020.
In 2016:
registered Democrats: 8,199 (37%)
reg Unaffiliated: 5,723 (26%)
reg Republicans: 7,881 (36%)
now:
reg Dems: 69,165 (48%)
reg Unaff: 48,837 (34%)
reg Rep: 26,014 (18%)
#ncpol #ncvotes
Party registrations for same day ABM request totals in 2016 vs. 2020.
In 2016:
registered Democrats: 8,199 (37%)
reg Unaffiliated: 5,723 (26%)
reg Republicans: 7,881 (36%)
now:
reg Dems: 69,165 (48%)
reg Unaff: 48,837 (34%)
reg Rep: 26,014 (18%)
#ncpol #ncvotes
5/
All NC parties are up over this same time in 2016, but some are up "substantially more" than others.
Among registered Republicans: 3.3X ahead of their same 2016 totals as of this week
Among reg Democrats: 8.4X ahead
Among reg Unaffiliated: 8.5X ahead
#ncpol #ncvotes
All NC parties are up over this same time in 2016, but some are up "substantially more" than others.
Among registered Republicans: 3.3X ahead of their same 2016 totals as of this week
Among reg Democrats: 8.4X ahead
Among reg Unaffiliated: 8.5X ahead
#ncpol #ncvotes
6/
Weekly totals by party reg of 2020 NC requests for ABM ballots, starting Jan 1:
Registered GOP #s ended ahead in last week's requests, but reg Dems & Unaffiliated voters are ahead of GOP this week so far (Week 32)
#ncpol #ncvotes
Weekly totals by party reg of 2020 NC requests for ABM ballots, starting Jan 1:
Registered GOP #s ended ahead in last week's requests, but reg Dems & Unaffiliated voters are ahead of GOP this week so far (Week 32)
#ncpol #ncvotes
7/
The cumulative totals since Jan 1 each week of NC requests for absentee by mail ballots, broken down by party registration.
Recent mailers to NC voters, from both NC GOP & outside groups, are likely helping to fuel these numbers.
#ncpol #ncvotes
The cumulative totals since Jan 1 each week of NC requests for absentee by mail ballots, broken down by party registration.
Recent mailers to NC voters, from both NC GOP & outside groups, are likely helping to fuel these numbers.
#ncpol #ncvotes
8/
Party registration %s of cumulative totals each week since Jan 1 for NC requests for absentee by mail ballots:
Middle of April (Week 14) began the spread between registered Dems & GOP, with Unaffiliated registered voters holding steady
#ncpol #ncvotes
Party registration %s of cumulative totals each week since Jan 1 for NC requests for absentee by mail ballots:
Middle of April (Week 14) began the spread between registered Dems & GOP, with Unaffiliated registered voters holding steady
#ncpol #ncvotes
9/
NC absentee by mail (ABM) requests by voter race:
Whites: 78%
Black/African American: 11%
All other races/undesignated: 11%
Not surprising whites are significant #s/%s, since NC voting by mail tends to be used by more white voters
Party reg & race:
#ncpol #ncvotes
NC absentee by mail (ABM) requests by voter race:
Whites: 78%
Black/African American: 11%
All other races/undesignated: 11%
Not surprising whites are significant #s/%s, since NC voting by mail tends to be used by more white voters
Party reg & race:
#ncpol #ncvotes
Voter age ranges, as set by NC St Board of Elections:
18-25 YO: 6%
26-40 YO: 14%
41-65 YO: 34%
66+ YO: 46%
NC ABM voting tends to be used by older voters, though there's a usual spike with college-age students
Patterns fairly consistent over time:
#ncpol #ncvotes
18-25 YO: 6%
26-40 YO: 14%
41-65 YO: 34%
66+ YO: 46%
NC ABM voting tends to be used by older voters, though there's a usual spike with college-age students
Patterns fairly consistent over time:
#ncpol #ncvotes
11/
Voter gender within NC's ABM requests:
Female: 56%
Male: 39%
Undesignated/Unreported: 5%
Again, fairly consistent over past few weeks re: voter gender & party registrations:
#ncpol #ncvotes
Voter gender within NC's ABM requests:
Female: 56%
Male: 39%
Undesignated/Unreported: 5%
Again, fairly consistent over past few weeks re: voter gender & party registrations:
#ncpol #ncvotes
12/
By regions (urban, suburban, rural counties), as designated by OMB:
2020 NC ABM requests so far
Urban counties: 70%
Suburban counties: 20%
Rural counties: 10%
Party registration #s & %s in regions:
#ncpol #ncvotes
By regions (urban, suburban, rural counties), as designated by OMB:
2020 NC ABM requests so far
Urban counties: 70%
Suburban counties: 20%
Rural counties: 10%
Party registration #s & %s in regions:
#ncpol #ncvotes
13/
Again, state-wide, NC is ahead of 2016's same day totals 6.6X.
For comparisons among regions in NC ABMs requests:
Rural counties are 3.7X ahead of 2016 #s
Urban counties are 7X ahead of 2016 #s
Suburban counties are nearly 8X ahead of 2016 #s
#ncpol #ncvotes
Again, state-wide, NC is ahead of 2016's same day totals 6.6X.
For comparisons among regions in NC ABMs requests:
Rural counties are 3.7X ahead of 2016 #s
Urban counties are 7X ahead of 2016 #s
Suburban counties are nearly 8X ahead of 2016 #s
#ncpol #ncvotes
14/
Top 10 NC counties represent over 2/3 of all requests for absentee by mail ballots.
Top 2--Mecklenburg (Charlotte) and Wake (Raleigh)--account for 1/3 of the requests so far.
Here are top 15 NC counties:
#ncpol #ncvotes
Top 10 NC counties represent over 2/3 of all requests for absentee by mail ballots.
Top 2--Mecklenburg (Charlotte) and Wake (Raleigh)--account for 1/3 of the requests so far.
Here are top 15 NC counties:
#ncpol #ncvotes
15/
NC has 16 counties above the state's percentage of 62% of total 2016 requests, with 5 counties having already exceeding their county 2016 total requests so far.
#ncpol #ncvotes
NC has 16 counties above the state's percentage of 62% of total 2016 requests, with 5 counties having already exceeding their county 2016 total requests so far.
#ncpol #ncvotes
16/
A chart that models various "times factor" of 2016 same-day totals to see where things may end up come 9/4 when first NC ABM ballots will be sent out by counties.
Currently, 2020 #s are tracking above the 6X model, for potential 240K+ mailed out on 9/4:
#ncpol #ncvotes
A chart that models various "times factor" of 2016 same-day totals to see where things may end up come 9/4 when first NC ABM ballots will be sent out by counties.
Currently, 2020 #s are tracking above the 6X model, for potential 240K+ mailed out on 9/4:
#ncpol #ncvotes
17/
An important reminder: these #s are only for 95 out of 100 NC counties reporting. And many counties are backlogged processing requests.
Therefore: these may be 'low estimates' of *actual* numbers out there for requests for NC absentee by mail ballots.
#ncpol #ncvotes
An important reminder: these #s are only for 95 out of 100 NC counties reporting. And many counties are backlogged processing requests.
Therefore: these may be 'low estimates' of *actual* numbers out there for requests for NC absentee by mail ballots.
#ncpol #ncvotes
18/
once NC ABM ballots are mailed 9/4 & begin to return & processed, will have a better analysis to report with actual voter information associated with those ballots 'accepted'
Detailed voter info on ballot *requests* is not public (post 2018 NC 9th CD changes)
#ncpol
once NC ABM ballots are mailed 9/4 & begin to return & processed, will have a better analysis to report with actual voter information associated with those ballots 'accepted'
Detailed voter info on ballot *requests* is not public (post 2018 NC 9th CD changes)
#ncpol
19/
Other *important reminders*:
1: NC absentee by mail ballots can be requested via the form found here: https://www.ncsbe.gov/Voting-Options/Absentee-Voting#RequestingAbsenteeBallot
DEADLINE for requesting a NC Absentee by Mail Ballot: October 27, 2020
#ncpol #ncvotes
Other *important reminders*:
1: NC absentee by mail ballots can be requested via the form found here: https://www.ncsbe.gov/Voting-Options/Absentee-Voting#RequestingAbsenteeBallot
DEADLINE for requesting a NC Absentee by Mail Ballot: October 27, 2020
#ncpol #ncvotes
