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1/ What would Marcus Rashford be worth as a mid, and what points would he score? [Thread]
First I'll dive into what he would have scored this season, then I'll take a look at predicting his points for next season to work out whether we want to consider him in our teams. #FPL
First I'll dive into what he would have scored this season, then I'll take a look at predicting his points for next season to work out whether we want to consider him in our teams. #FPL
2/ In the 2019/20 season, Rashford scored 177 points.
He scored 17 goals (+17 for being a mid) and partook in 9 clean sheets (+9).
He scored 31 bonus points. After analysing his season, had he been a midfielder he would have only scored 27 bonus, 4 less than as a forward. #FPL
He scored 17 goals (+17 for being a mid) and partook in 9 clean sheets (+9).
He scored 31 bonus points. After analysing his season, had he been a midfielder he would have only scored 27 bonus, 4 less than as a forward. #FPL
3/ This gives Midfielder 2019/20 Rashford a total of 199 points.
A pretty decent score, almost identical to Martial this season. Now let's take a look at his underlying stats and give an estimate of his points for next season. #FPL
A pretty decent score, almost identical to Martial this season. Now let's take a look at his underlying stats and give an estimate of his points for next season. #FPL
4/ I'll make the following assumption for next season, that he won't be out for 7 games in a row with an injury. I'll still factor in some rest, but I'm going to bump his estimated minutes to 2800 from 2645. I'll also bump his starts from 30 to 34. #FPL
5/ Over the past 3 seasons, Rashford has averaged an xG90 of 0.48 and an xA90 of 0.21.
However, since his move to midfield (AML), he has averaged 0.71 xG90 and 0.2 xA90 over the course of 2076 minutes. (Admittedly smaller sample size, but what if this is where he shines?) #FPL
However, since his move to midfield (AML), he has averaged 0.71 xG90 and 0.2 xA90 over the course of 2076 minutes. (Admittedly smaller sample size, but what if this is where he shines?) #FPL
6/ Using these numbers, and my minutes prediction of 2800, gives us 22.1 goals and 6.2 assists for next season. (2019/20 Rashford had xG of 19.5 and xA of 5.46)
I'm also going to make an assumption that Rashford will continue splitting penalty duties. #FPL
I'm also going to make an assumption that Rashford will continue splitting penalty duties. #FPL
7/ Last year he took 8/14, missing 2.
Over the last 2 years United have averaged 13 pens a season, whilst this number seems a bit of an anomaly, I'll be taking it forward in the calculations - giving Rashford 6 penalties to take next season. #FPL
Over the last 2 years United have averaged 13 pens a season, whilst this number seems a bit of an anomaly, I'll be taking it forward in the calculations - giving Rashford 6 penalties to take next season. #FPL
8/ Over his career he has scored 83.3% of pens, giving us 5 scored and 1 missed.
Because Rashford's xG was calculated on a season where he took 8 penalties, I'm going to scale the coming season to use 6 instead (-0.75xG per pen). This scales his xG for next season to 20.6. #FPL
Because Rashford's xG was calculated on a season where he took 8 penalties, I'm going to scale the coming season to use 6 instead (-0.75xG per pen). This scales his xG for next season to 20.6. #FPL
9/ On average, Rashford gets 1 "fantasy assist" a season, so I'll add that on to total him at 7.2 estimated assists.
Let's calculate this: 34 starts, 20.6 goals, 7.2 assists, 3 yellows, 14 cleans, 1 missed pen and 27 bonus. #FPL
Let's calculate this: 34 starts, 20.6 goals, 7.2 assists, 3 yellows, 14 cleans, 1 missed pen and 27 bonus. #FPL
10/ This brings us to a total for ~229 points estimated for next season as a midfielder.
229 points brings him slightly above Mane and just below Salah for the season just gone. #FPL
229 points brings him slightly above Mane and just below Salah for the season just gone. #FPL
11/ Now, I don't expect Rashford to hit this, injuries, unexpected rests could all factor into the equation. But it gives a great idea of his potential when fit, which I assume he will be for the start of the season. #FPL
12/ Personally I'd consider him some value below 12 mill, 11.5 being an uncertain pick and anything below that to be very good value. #FPL
13/ TL;DR If Rashford was a mid last season he'd have got 199 points, very similar to Martial. If he's a mid next season I expect him to get ~229 points if he stays fit throughout the season and United keep up decent form. Personally I'd be buying him anything below 11.5m. #FPL
