If it looks like a duck, swims like a duck & quacks like a duck, then its probably a duck. Same about elections. If it looks like we’re heading to an election, if politicians make campaign videos & talk like they want an election then – yep, we’re probably going to an election.

There’s near unanimity in political establishment that @netanyahu wants to take Israelis to the voting booth. Even if @gantzbe suddenly caves & agrees to one-year budget, the PM – many politicians believe – will still find an excuse to ensure the Knesset disperses soon.

Reason is simple: Netanyahu has one thing on his mind. It’s not Iran, Hezbollah or corona, but rather how to avoid his trial, which will start in January with 3 weekly hearings from morning until late evening. That is the last place Netanyahu wants to find himself.

He feels he has one last chance to try and avoid it: an election that ends with 61 seats on the Right, legislation of a retroactive immunity bill, and his trial being put on ice for the duration of his premiership.

Netanyahu seems to think one last election is worth the risk b/c if he fails to get 61, he might still not lose. It’ll be hard for someone else, according to polls, to form an alternative gov’t without him. So, he will simply drag country from election to another.

While anything can still change, Netanyahu seems determined & there’s no reason to think he won’t take Israel to a 4th election in 2 years – even if it’s not in the country’s best interest.

In his list of priorities, there is only one that stands at the top right now: survival.