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1/ Myself and @SarahScobie2 have a new blog out, where we compare hospital discharges in March 2020 with March 2019, to find out what changed at the start of the pandemic.
Find out what we found here: https://www.nuffieldtrust.org.uk/news-item/how-did-the-nhs-free-up-hospital-capacity-at-the-start-of-the-pandemic-and-what-does-this-mean-for-future-outbreaks
Find out what we found here: https://www.nuffieldtrust.org.uk/news-item/how-did-the-nhs-free-up-hospital-capacity-at-the-start-of-the-pandemic-and-what-does-this-mean-for-future-outbreaks
2/ Our analysis shows that discharges began dropping below usual levels in early March, which was before both the national guidance and the official lockdown:
3/ We know that the biggest driver of discharges is admissions, because most people stay in hospital for less than 1 day. Therefore, this drop in discharges indicates a drop in admissions in March 2020, meaning people avoided going to hospital.
4/ Although total discharges dropped in March 2020, discharges for patients who stayed in hospital longer than 10 days increased in comparison to the same time last year:
5/ Also, among this group, more people than last year were discharged to care homes or died in hospital:
6/ 
What lessons can be learnt from these findings in terms of a second wave, and what are the implications for how local systems manage capacity?
What lessons can be learnt from these findings in terms of a second wave, and what are the implications for how local systems manage capacity?
7/ It clear that local flexibility will be crucial for both recovery and response to future local outbreaks. Also, a better understanding of the financial/service support given to patients discharged at higher than usual levels will be key to managing capacity for a future wave.
8/ 
Local health and social care organisations can learn from what worked or didn't and identify gaps in provision by examining their own discharge data.
Further reflections on how each sector is prepared and can cope is pressing as the fallout of Covid-19 continues.
Local health and social care organisations can learn from what worked or didn't and identify gaps in provision by examining their own discharge data. Further reflections on how each sector is prepared and can cope is pressing as the fallout of Covid-19 continues.
