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[THREAD] Would have responded with a longer article but I've been unwell. So some thoughts. Your main argument to justify that "most uplifting aspect of success [after August]" is about militancy recruitment and killings has no historical backing or even data to support. https://twitter.com/Sandeep_IPS_JKP/status/1291564197193453568
In 1990s also, local recruitment dipped, hundreds surrendered but that didn't mean end of militancy because it still kept the conflict going. In fact the bloodiest phase was in late 1990s and early 2000s when even deadly fidayeen attacks started.
Secondly, the numbers today are higher than 2016, 2017 and 2018. It can be said the local militancy has been brought down but in no means it is a success because situation still leads youth to pick guns. 83% militants killed in 2020 so far are locals. https://thekashmirwalla.com/2020/07/in-kashmir-83-per-cent-of-militants-killed-in-2020-are-locals-says-home-ministry/
The militancy has seen many momentary declines in past decade. In 2012, the local recruitment was at lowest but four years later a new form of militancy emerged, leading to 2018 becoming the deadliest year in a decade. https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/2018-is-the-deadliest-year-in-a-decade-in-kashmir-next-year-could-be-worse/2018/12/22/493ff2e4-03bb-11e9-958c-0a601226ff6b_story.html
Here is Avinash Mohananey, with 20 years experience in intelligence bureau, commenting on 5 Aug 2020 that "it would be too early and naïve for the government to pat its own back on the absence of mass upsurge after the changes [of August]." https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/politics-and-nation/view-early-for-govt-to-pat-its-back-for-absence-of-upsurge-in-the-wake-of-of-revocation-article-370/articleshow/77337645.cms?utm_source=contentofinterest&utm_medium=text&utm_campaign=cppst
To go in past, in his important 2013 essay, @pstanpolitics, argues that the "research suggests that nearly half of the civil wars since 1990 have ended without clear victory, defeat, or settlement; instead, these conflicts simmer along without full resolution..."
"There is a substantial difference between shattering an armed movement, on the one hand, and creating a workable political sphere, on the other," adds Staniland. …https://paulstanilanddotcom.files.wordpress.com/2015/12/stanilandjkas2013.pdf
The continuous siege atmosphere, uncertainty, zero political process (instead they are in detention now), arrests under PSA have all added to why there is always sudden rise in militancy. I explained it here in last December: https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/12/18/jailed-stone-throwing-join-terrorist-militant-group-kashmir-radicalization/
Point is not about militant killings, which never brought a solution and also not stopped anyone from joining. Many experts with decades of experience say, "the government is now left with no alternative but to carry on with its repressive policies." https://thewire.in/politics/narendra-modi-kashmir-master-stroke
Lastly, there are two important reports, you must check - especially the recommendations. Here @CrisisGroup - https://www.crisisgroup.org/asia/south-asia/kashmir/310-raising-stakes-jammu-and-kashmir
And another is by @USIP, which says "the state is likely to face a resurgence of violent and quasi-violent resistance." https://www.usip.org/publications/2020/08/indias-kashmir-conundrum-and-after-abrogation-article-370
And another is by @USIP, which says "the state is likely to face a resurgence of violent and quasi-violent resistance." https://www.usip.org/publications/2020/08/indias-kashmir-conundrum-and-after-abrogation-article-370
