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Let me explain to you why I'm worried about NSW covid situation and have been for weeks. This is not a political attack on NSW government. This is looking at stats and comparing them to where Victoria was a month ago. Happy to hear I'm wrong. But here's my thinking. A thread
So we keep getting told NSW has virus under control because their positive case numbers dribble along in low double figures. I believe it was Donald Trump who complained that the more testing you do, the more cases you find. I'm worried NSW has more spread than they've discovered
One way to measure how badly a population is suffering covid is to look at number of patients in intensive care. This is a good measure because you can fairly accurately extrapolate a consistent estimate of how many people must be sick to have a small percentage in intensive care
Let's start with Victoria on July 4. This was the day govt locked down towers. They had total 2469 cases with 108 new cases. This was 3 days after they locked down 10 postcodes and did mass testing. On this day Victoria had three people in intensive care.
https://www.dhhs.vic.gov.au/coronavirus-update-victoria-4-july-2020
https://www.dhhs.vic.gov.au/coronavirus-update-victoria-4-july-2020
Since July 4, Victoria has had 11,000 additional cases in just over a month. As of today, Victoria has 42 people in intensive care. This is even with lockdowns, first stage 3 and now stage 4 and mandatory masks. Virus is incredibly contagious, clearly.
https://www.dhhs.vic.gov.au/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-update
https://www.dhhs.vic.gov.au/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-update
Now I'll compare where NSW is today in relation to where Victoria was on July 4. There are various known clusters all over Sydney and now Newcastle. NSW has a total of 3,643 cases and 12 new cases today. The number in intensive care is currently 10.
https://www.health.nsw.gov.au/news/Pages/20200806_00.aspx
https://www.health.nsw.gov.au/news/Pages/20200806_00.aspx
So, my question is, if Victoria had 3 people in intensive care on July 4, a NSW have 10 in intensive care on August 6, how do we know that Sydney doesn't have many more covid infected people walking around without realising they have covid, who aren't being tested? It's a worry.
I don't want to scare people or make them believe NSW is definitely going to end up where Victoria is. But I just hope there isn't complacency in the NSW public thinking that they're fine to just keep going about life as usual when they aren't sure they have covid contained. End.
