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I've spent a lot of time thinking about the economics around Pandemics as they relate to Supply Chain Collapses, and ultimately Systems Collapse.
I'll start by explaining the history and end up with McDonalds!
I'll start by explaining the history and end up with McDonalds!
In the beginning (literally before the Old Testament was a thing) we had the Bronze Age empires. Hittites, Egypt, Babylon, Assyria, Canaan, Greece.
They were super cool and stable and could suffer HUGE wars with 100,000+ soldiers on either side......Then.......SOMETHING happened to completely fuck them up around 1077 BCE.
(btw, all of this needs to be Hat Tip to @fka_erin, she's an awesome friend of mine who asks really smart questions and knows a lot more than she lets on :-P)
Back to the story.. So essentially, the the Bronze Age empires collapse! Everyone but Egypt (and even they come out limping like a wounded puppy) is GONE in the course of like, 1 human lifetime. WHAT THE FUCK HAPPENED!?!?!?!
We (the entire body of present human knowledge) aren't sure! But it looks like it was a SYSTEMS COLLAPSE.
All of the empires were strong enough to withstand invasion, weather change, internal revolt, famine, etc etc etc......
How did they ALL fall so fast, so hard?
All of the empires were strong enough to withstand invasion, weather change, internal revolt, famine, etc etc etc......
How did they ALL fall so fast, so hard?
The current best theory (That's a personal judgement call I'm making, but is also held by a lot of people in the related fields) is for SYSTEMS COLLAPSE. That's where the trade networks that allow farmers to feed cities who produce things that feed networks breaks down entirely.
These breakdowns lead to anger which further destabilizes things which leads to everything reverting to basic human necessity.
This led to the Bronze Age and the Classical Age for us, but it MUST have been crazy to live through!
This led to the Bronze Age and the Classical Age for us, but it MUST have been crazy to live through!
Why are the Farms stopping? A combination of events made it difficult to stop mining and forced them to either reconstruct or start fighting off enemies....
Why can the blacksmith no longer get the raw materials to do their work? Mines stopped so miners could go to farms and get food.
Why can the Soldier no longer get a sword? (blacksmith stopped cuz the miner stopped)
Why is the empire being overrun with hungry people the Soldiers can't stop?
So, how does that apply today.....
Well, since I'm talking about keeping large (literally the largest) systematic economies going through a period of trouble......it obviously applies deeply. Those were the largest economies of their time, as we are of our time.
Well, since I'm talking about keeping large (literally the largest) systematic economies going through a period of trouble......it obviously applies deeply. Those were the largest economies of their time, as we are of our time.
Large systemic geopolitical networks with a G-6 of powerplayers!?
Yeah....I know this game!
Yeah....I know this game!
Shifting (and this all ties together I promise) to modern economics.......
One of my FAVORITE common sense metrics is McDonalds! I use it in all things! I can decide how a war would go based on the number of McDonald's in the regions fighting....
One of my FAVORITE common sense metrics is McDonalds! I use it in all things! I can decide how a war would go based on the number of McDonald's in the regions fighting....
But the relevant McDonald's Metric is: How well are the individual McDonald's restaurants being supplied?
EVEN McDonalds can't get enough beef to feed everyone double quarter pounders all the time, and MANY restaurants are regularly cutting items from their menu simply because they don't have the supply to meet the demand!
I'm going to call this the McDonald's Metric for the Apocalypse, or the BigMac for short.
If your local McDonald's is running out of supplies such that they can't do normal business through the drive thu, you're in trouble.
For that, SURELY, is a sign of a Systems Collapse.
If your local McDonald's is running out of supplies such that they can't do normal business through the drive thu, you're in trouble.
For that, SURELY, is a sign of a Systems Collapse.
It's got to ring to everyone as concerning that McDonald's can't meet supply EVEN WHEN all the other restaurants were forced to close or reduce operations.
Some caveats: I'm not including India, China, or the Americas.... I will explain why here just for completeness:
1) China: They weren't "China" but the seperate people's of China at the time, and their trade was independent from the rest of the world. As a result, their systems cycles are unique to them, though they still happen.
2) The American Empires of the time (Mayan were predominant I think) were disconnected from the rest of humanity and didn't suffer from systems issues the same way.
3) India did collapse (the Indus Valley People) but that might be related? The questions around them are still largely unresolved.
I'm just saying that the starts of a Systems Collapse are there in the McDonald's data.
I'm not sure what to do with that fact. I'm an analyst, not a policy maker.
I'm not sure what to do with that fact. I'm an analyst, not a policy maker.
You too can find this data! Go see how short the McDonald's menu is vs what it used to be!
THAT is your indicator of supply chain collapse.
THAT is your indicator of supply chain collapse.
I should add some sources:
1) 1077 - Eric Cline https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1177_B.C.:_The_Year_Civilization_Collapsed - probably my favorite historian ever, but definitely my favorite ancient historian. I have this in audiobook and still pull it up for funzies from time to time.
1) 1077 - Eric Cline https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1177_B.C.:_The_Year_Civilization_Collapsed - probably my favorite historian ever, but definitely my favorite ancient historian. I have this in audiobook and still pull it up for funzies from time to time.
The McDonalds thing? That probably comes from Freakenomics https://freakonomics.com/ .
It started as a book, became a podcase, and has since kinda exploded. I THINK (but can't be sure) that the McDonald's metric was exposed to me in their first book.
It started as a book, became a podcase, and has since kinda exploded. I THINK (but can't be sure) that the McDonald's metric was exposed to me in their first book.
I know this is out of order, but I would feel silly if I didn't also include this....
The Biblical story of the Exodus (Where Moses led his ppl from Egypt into modern day Israel) is largely suspected, and hotly contested, to have happened here. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Late_Bronze_Age_collapse
The Biblical story of the Exodus (Where Moses led his ppl from Egypt into modern day Israel) is largely suspected, and hotly contested, to have happened here. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Late_Bronze_Age_collapse
It's just totally weird. The Hebrew bible is a strong text to draw from, but the archaeology and the text of other people (including the Egyptians) don't support it. You'd think the Egyptians would do a thing for a dead Pharaoh, and you'd think we'd find evidence of dead slaves..
*shrugs* absence of evidence is not evidence until the proposition has been explored fully.
I find it fascinating that one of the most well preserved and important texts in human history isn't supported in the record. I hope we find some more data in my lifetime.
I find it fascinating that one of the most well preserved and important texts in human history isn't supported in the record. I hope we find some more data in my lifetime.
