1/ I’ve been reading through Trump’s executive orders on Wechat/Tencent and TikTok/ByteDance and have a few thoughts. https://twitter.com/ccjanetang/status/1291558412401205250

2/ first, these orders appear pretty far reaching at first glance applying to both companies and any subsidiaries and transactions involving them *as identified by the secretary of commerce within 45 days*. This last part is key.

3/ what parts of the companies and what types of transactions are forbidden is basically the heart of any sanction. That these are left almost completely unspecified means there’s a potentially significant range.

4/ the admin may decide it doesn’t apply to ByteDance’s American located operations, for instance. Or may decide it only forbids transactions involving the transmission of data from US persons to China. Or it could decide it applies to their entire operation.

5/ I don’t know what it will end up going with. The point I’m making is the current undefined scope means the Trump admin still has a range of actions it can threaten against both companies in pursuit of the admin’s goals.

6/ tl;dr: this isn’t over by any stretch. Stay tuned.

7/ lots of people freaking out that Trump banned video games because Tencent has stakes in all these gaming companies. This isn’t true (yet). The admin still has to define the scope of subsidiaries and types of transactions forbidden. https://twitter.com/slasher/status/1291565115670695936?s=21 https://twitter.com/slasher/status/1291565115670695936

8/ it might be best to think of this EO like two guys trying to shake someone down. “Nice company you got there, would be a shame if someone threw a brick through the window or set it on fire.” The brick or fire have yet hit.

9/ update, Trump admin has clarified that the order won’t apply to video games owned by Tencent (at least for now). Still leaves a lot to be worked out though! https://twitter.com/samaugustdean/status/1291576813685108736?s=21 https://twitter.com/samaugustdean/status/1291576813685108736

10/ apparently the commerce department is still trying to decide on a range of options https://twitter.com/nwadhams/status/1291580647946035200?s=21 https://twitter.com/nwadhams/status/1291580647946035200