Read on Twitter
As it is end of season review time I thought I would write a thread highlighting the importance of evaluating the decision making process and to do your own data validation of outcomes.
In order to avoid recency bias and twitter noise. [THREAD]
In order to avoid recency bias and twitter noise. [THREAD]
1).To work through it I am using the double Bournemouth attack that I (and no doubt a few others) started with in GW 1 so help it helps anyone wondering if it was a good choice.
2). Rationale for a double Bournemouth attack:-
1. They had a good early set of fixtures and had historically been an attacking
2. Wilson (8.0) and King (6.5) price points meant there should be alternatives to move to
3. Seemed to have support on twitter as an approach
1. They had a good early set of fixtures and had historically been an attacking
2. Wilson (8.0) and King (6.5) price points meant there should be alternatives to move to
3. Seemed to have support on twitter as an approach
3). Recency bias view based on the world now:-
Terrible Decision - Bournemouth got relegated how could I possibly have two of their strikers in my forward line!!
Wilson and King end of season form wasn’t great but how was it at the start of the season......
Terrible Decision - Bournemouth got relegated how could I possibly have two of their strikers in my forward line!!
Wilson and King end of season form wasn’t great but how was it at the start of the season......
4). Data based review up to GW7
4a) Wilson - £8.0m
Scores - 46 (5,5,5,5,13,7,6)
Average - 6.57
Looking at the other alternatives in a similar price bracket:-
Jiminez - £7.5m (24pts, avg 3.43)
Abraham - £7.0m (46pts, avg 6.57)
Haller - £7.5m (32pts avg 4.57)
4a) Wilson - £8.0m
Scores - 46 (5,5,5,5,13,7,6)
Average - 6.57
Looking at the other alternatives in a similar price bracket:-
Jiminez - £7.5m (24pts, avg 3.43)
Abraham - £7.0m (46pts, avg 6.57)
Haller - £7.5m (32pts avg 4.57)
4a) Result - Wilson justifies his selection. I can sleep easy on this one.
4b)King - £6.5m
Scores = 36 (2,6,2,2,10,2,12)
Average - 5.14
Scores = 36 (2,6,2,2,10,2,12)
Average - 5.14
What about the value striker hero of 19/20
Ings - £6.0m (26pts, avg 4.33) <
Or other options
Jota - £6.5m (18pta, avg 2.57) <
One party loving striker did smash the first 7GW’s
Pukki - £6.0m (53pts, avg 7.57) >
Ings - £6.0m (26pts, avg 4.33) <
Or other options
Jota - £6.5m (18pta, avg 2.57) <
One party loving striker did smash the first 7GW’s
Pukki - £6.0m (53pts, avg 7.57) >
4b) Result - King was an ok choice vs other options but having two (cheapish)attackers from the same team if non top six feels too much investment / risk for me. Look to avoid going forward.
My Conclusions and learnings for next season
1.KEEP Targeting lower price value strikers with good early fixtures is something I will look to do again in 20/21.
2. AVOID Having two attackers from the same lower half team - it is too high risk (for me..)
1.KEEP Targeting lower price value strikers with good early fixtures is something I will look to do again in 20/21.
2. AVOID Having two attackers from the same lower half team - it is too high risk (for me..)
3. BE AWARE - Without reviewing the data I may have been swayed by recency bias which would have clouded my assessment
4. DO MORE - Put the work in to focus on the data and stats to inform future decision making
4. DO MORE - Put the work in to focus on the data and stats to inform future decision making
