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1. Olympiakos' loss tonight means that Scotland are guaranteed to be ranked in the top 15 for the 21/22 season.
It has a big impact on our European participation, meaning
- A 2nd Champions League place
- A place in the new look Europa League
- All teams starting in later rounds
It has a big impact on our European participation, meaning
- A 2nd Champions League place
- A place in the new look Europa League
- All teams starting in later rounds
2. For the Scottish champion it likely means starting in the 3rd qualifying round. 14th would guarantee QR3. 15th would guarantee starting in QR2, but being promoted to QR3 if the CL winner also qualifies for the group stage via their league - which is very likely.
3. In a normal non-pandemic season that would mean starting either 2 or 4 weeks later - allowing a longer summer break, and more time for Peter Lawwell to infuriate us by not signing the defenders we need before our first qualifier.
4. Starting in QR3 guarantees group stage football of some kind.
Starting in QR2 means guaranteed group stage football of some kind if they win a tie in any of the tournaments.
This is because the new setup allows a CL team to play in all 3 tournaments.
Starting in QR2 means guaranteed group stage football of some kind if they win a tie in any of the tournaments.
This is because the new setup allows a CL team to play in all 3 tournaments.
5. For our runner up it means Champions League football, starting in the 2nd round of the league (non champion) route.
Again, it would mean a shot at all 3 tournaments, if needed, and only needing to win a single tie in any to guarantee group stage football of some kind.
Again, it would mean a shot at all 3 tournaments, if needed, and only needing to win a single tie in any to guarantee group stage football of some kind.
6. For our cup winner it means a place in the new 'best of the rest' EL, starting in QR3. The new format contains only teams from the top 15 leagues, and teams knocked out of CL qualifying.
Again, a single tie won in any tournament guarantees group stage football of some kind.
Again, a single tie won in any tournament guarantees group stage football of some kind.
7. 3rd/4th in the league would join the new Conference League, starting in QR2. The only real bonus here is starting a round later.
They'd face the same qualifying as before. Lose and that's Europe done for another season.
They'd face the same qualifying as before. Lose and that's Europe done for another season.
8. There are some downsides to the changes, though. For a start, each win becomes less valuable to Scotland's coefficient with 5 teams.
That's because the coefficient we get is based on the average points our teams gain during the season.
That's because the coefficient we get is based on the average points our teams gain during the season.
9. For example, every time one of our teams wins a group game they get 2pts for our coefficient. If that's the only points we get, and we have 4 teams in europe, then the average among our teams is 0.5pts (2pts / 4 teams).
0.5pts was the value of a win to Scotland in 19/20.
0.5pts was the value of a win to Scotland in 19/20.
10. But when you increase the number of clubs in europe to 5, what you're doing is reducing the power of that win to 0.4pts (2pts / 5 teams).
It means that a win will be less valuable to us than when we had 4 teams, making it harder for us to maintain our coefficient.
It means that a win will be less valuable to us than when we had 4 teams, making it harder for us to maintain our coefficient.
11. To put it into context. Scotland gained 9.750pts in 19/20 with 4 teams. With 5 teams, those same points would only be worth 7.800pts.
That's enough of a difference to drop us back to 19th place in the rankings - a big drop.
That's enough of a difference to drop us back to 19th place in the rankings - a big drop.
12. There's no problem here if our new 5th team pulls its weight. But the bulk of our points have come from just 2 teams, so that's not very likely.
The problem is made worse by starting in later rounds. First, our other teams are likely to be unseeded, meaning harder ties.
The problem is made worse by starting in later rounds. First, our other teams are likely to be unseeded, meaning harder ties.
13. This increases the likelihood of an exit first time up.
And starting in later rounds means we miss out on easier games where points can be gaines, and fitness built up.
And, from a Celtic point of view, it likely gives Rangers a chance at CL money.
And starting in later rounds means we miss out on easier games where points can be gaines, and fitness built up.
And, from a Celtic point of view, it likely gives Rangers a chance at CL money.
14. It's up to you whether or not it's worth it, all things considered.
Scotland are currently on course to start next season in 13th position - just under 3pts behind Turkey in 11th place. 11th is the point where an automatic CL group spot becomes likely, but not guaranteed.
Scotland are currently on course to start next season in 13th position - just under 3pts behind Turkey in 11th place. 11th is the point where an automatic CL group spot becomes likely, but not guaranteed.
15. Another good season could see Scotland on the brink of that. But the higher we go, the harder it will become to maintain.
We got 6.750pts in 18/19 and 9.750pts in 19/20. Even the lower amount replicated consistently for 5 years would put us in with a shout of top 10.
We got 6.750pts in 18/19 and 9.750pts in 19/20. Even the lower amount replicated consistently for 5 years would put us in with a shout of top 10.
