The Champions League returns tomorrow! And to celebrate, we've written a bumper tactical analysis thread previewing the four remaining last 16 second legs:

Man City 2-1 Real Madrid

•Pep's setup in the first leg was intriguing as he selected a very uncharacteristic compact 4-4-2 shape, with effectively two rotating false 9s in KDB & Bernardo thru the middle and Jesus in an unfamiliar wide left role

•Pep says he went for this after watching Real defend very well when the ball is in front of them, which would have likely happened with Aguero starting as an orthodox striker. Given the likes of Casemiro, Varane & Ramos are all very aggressive & front-foot defensively

• Pep's aim was to use this style of defending to Real's detriment with KDB & Bernardo as false 9s, they both naturally drift into deeper half-spaces and Ramos & Varane inevitably followed them into these areas it was then up to Jesus & Mahrez to make out-to-in runs from wide

•Defensively it also worked very well
- allowed City to have 2 aggressive pressers (KDB & Bernardo) to stop Real Madrid playing out from the back

•However, both City goals did come in the 2nd half when Pep switched to an orthodox front 3 of Sterling-Jesus-Mahrez with De Bruyne combining behind them and creating his trademark wide overloads as he did down the left for Jesus' goal

So there are arguments for both systems

•In the 1st leg, Zidane opted for one of his many unorthodox tactical variation, selecting an asymmetrical 4-3-3 - the left side characterised by Vinicius staying very wide & combining with Ferland Mendy, whilst Isco played as a 'false winger' off the right

• You can read more about this system in our 2019/20 Real Madrid tactical analysis thread here: https://twitter.com/PremLeaguePanel/status/1287062866999283715?s=20

• However, the system showed it's flaws in the first leg - given Modric was playing right side of the midfield 3, it was often him who was tasked with drifting into wider areas, which doesn't suit his game or ageing legs at all

• It would have made more sense for Zidane to swap the athleticism of Valverde (who instead played on the left of the midfield 3) into Modric's position on the right, as he would have been able to provide suitable width as we talked about here https://twitter.com/PremLeaguePanel/status/1287060497045618693?s=20

•To be fair to Zidane, he did from this tactical error since - even in the 2nd half vs City, he switched Valverde onto the right of the midfield 3

And he carried this forward into El Clasico 3 days later, provided Real with genuine width with Valverde actually as a right winger

• Against City, this 4-3-3 setup with Valverde as a right winger and a midfield 4 of Kroos-Modric-Casemiro is very possible
• But if Real are still chasing goals, expect Zidane to change system to either:

1. An attacking 4-3-3 with two natural wingers (Hazard, Vinicius, Rodrygo, Asensio to choose from)
2. Or a 4-2-3-1 with two wingers plus Hazard as a 10. In order to create the type of attacking situations we talked about here

•Real Madrid strong form characterised by Benzema showing he's a quality creator,finding excellent out-to-in movement from Real wide forwards.And Modric/Kroos doing similar
-Benzema created 16 chances in last 11 starts
-Modric 11 chances in 8 starts
-Kroos 11 chances in 8 starts

•Pep may consider playing Fernandinho as a defensive midfielder to limit Benzema's influence - Lacazette dropping into deeper areas to link play caused a Rodri-Gundogan double pivot problems,including during the first Auba goal where they were breached by a Tierney pass into him

Barcelona 1-1 Napoli

•Hallmark of Gattuso's Napoli has been the ability to change their style of play according to the opposition
-average the highest (57.2%) possession in Serie A,but in the 1st leg vs Barca,they played stricly on the counter & expect them to do the same again

•In the first leg, this strength was played out via"

1. Insigne, Mertens & Callejon making runs to transition very quickly from defence to attack
2. Fabian Ruiz & Zielinski making late runs into the box to join them

3. Ruiz & Zielinski intense counter-pressing to win the ball back in dangerous areas & initiate counter-attacks - Zielinski did exactly this for Napoli's goal

•Unfortunately, Insigne is injured & Callejon out-of-favour so most of the counter-attacking threat will rely on Mertens
- he has 7 G/A in 7 starts post-lockdown
- Gattuso's front 3 in the 4-3-3 will probably be Mertens on the left, Milik thru the middle & Politano on the right

•As for Barcelona, the most functional they have looked was with a 4-4-2 diamond
- 4 games, 3 wins, 1 draws, 0 losses with this sysem post-lockdown - including impressive attacking performances vs Atléti & smashing 5th place Villareal away from home

•Instead of shoehorning Griezmann onto the wing in a 4-3-3, playing a diamond allows him to occupy central areas best suited to his quality link-up play in tight spaces & intelligent movement in box
- often Messi & Griezmann fluidly rotated as the 10 and striker,alongside Suarez

• In these two images Messi is in a number 10 position, whilst Griezmann makes two runs ahead of him into the box (first run leads to a goal with intelligent movement to the near post)

• In this period of play, Griez links with Messi centrally dropping into a deeper 10 position,Messi runs onto the pass and then lays the ball back to Griez to shoot (still in a 10 position)

The 4-4-2 diamond extracts the best link-up play between Messi-Griez & supply for Suarez

• If Setien does opt for a 4-3-3, then Ansu Fati has to be under strong consideration - he has the pace to run in-behind defences which is so important when Setien plays this system to stop the middle of the pitch becoming too congested as it did in the first leg

Juventus 0-1 Lyon

•A major issue for Juventus in the 1st leg was the slowness & lack of penetration of their ball circulation in midfield & this is an issue that has actually persisted post-lockdown

There is a specific pattern of play in their build-up that contributes to this

- other than Ramsey (who has only), none of Pjanic, Bentancur, Matuidi or Rabiot are comfortable finding pockets of space in between the lines
- as a result, Juve's 3 central midfielders too often are found in a horizontal line with no depth to their positioning

• Therefore with Sarri now opting for Danilo & Alex Sandro as his starting full-backs (not exactly elite going forwards - 2 league assists between them all season), this leads to too much creative emphasis falling on Dybala dropping deep from his striker's position

•Dybala has created 16 big chances this season - Bentancur is the midfielder who has created the most big chances for Juve this season with 6

•Sarri should definitely look to select Cuadrado at RB (5 Serie A assists this season) to try and reduce Dybala's creative burden

•And if Juve are chasing goals late in the game, he needs to either:
1. Consider switching Dybala into a 10 position in a 4-2-3-1 or 4-4-2 diamond
2. Play Bernadeschi as a midfielder in a 4-3-3 to add a creative presence in between the lines

•Defensively there has also been a major improvement from Lyon since Rudi Garcia switched to a back 3, given none of their CBs are individually spectacular
- PSG failed to create a big chance against them in the French Cup final & Juve only created one in the first leg

• Lyon also now have Jeff Reine-Adelaide (likely to be an impact sub) and star forward Memphis Depay back from injury but have unfortunately lost the defensive work of Lucas Tousart at DM, who has moved to Hertha Berlin

•The 3-4-3 also allows Houssem Aouar to play in a more advanced position as a creative/dribbling outlet coming inside off the left wing
- this inside left position is exactly where he caused damage for his goal vs Juve in the first leg

•Juve have shown a particular vulnerability to crosses since lockdown, originating from the defending of both Danilo & Alex Sandro
- often both stand off wingers far too much
- and their tracking of runs to the far post has left a lot to be desired

- with Lyon now playing wing-backs & in particular Maxwel Cornet pushing into very advanced left wing positions, striker Moussa Dembele could pose a significant threat from crosses

Bayern 3-0 Chelsea

•Will keep this short & sweet given the odds of an upset are remote, but how can Chelsea do it?

1.Despite the scoreline, Chelsea breached Bayern's high line many times at the Bridge,but had Mount & Barkley in wide roles, so didn't have the pace to capitalise

-Pulisic & Willian injured,so key for Lampard to start Hudson-Odoi. Preferably on the left, away from pace of Davies & Alaba. Maybe they could capitalise on rustiness from Kimmich not playing RB for a while (Pavard injured)

2. Similarly, Tammy may be a better choice than Giroud

•If you look at Bayern's worst defensive performances under Hansi Flick, three of the worst all came against Leverkusen (conceded 6 goals in these games), with Bailey,Alario & Diaby exploiting their high line with well-timed runs

Of course, it is still going to be a tall order

Retweets of the original post in the thread much appreciated if you enjoyed reading it. And any feedback always welcome.

More tactical analysis to come for the rest of the Champions League