Read on Twitter
1/ Look, folks, I get that the scale is hard to grasp, but everyone needs to do some basic math & understand that the risk is *not* solely to the kids & their teachers. The risk is to your entire community. You’re risking *a lot* for a couple of weeks of f2f learning. [Thread] https://twitter.com/freeyourmindkid/status/1291393251669311496
2/ First, let’s stipulate that f2f learning is of course preferred for a whole host of reasons. And you can bet that teachers prefer it, too, BUT you really need to keep in mind the caveats in the CDC’s & others’ guidance. Especially when they say *low* community spread.
3/ Georgia & many, many other states do *not* have low community spread right now. In fact, Georgia, and other states, are well into the red zone when it comes to community spread. That means the virus is circulating widely & odds are high at least some people at school have it.
4/ If you’re following @Freeyourmindkid, you’ve seen the threads & news reports. Teachers, staff, and students showed up to school this week *already infected*. And that shouldn’t be a surprise given the community spread in Georgia. It’ll happen elsewhere, too.
5/ Next, let’s all acknowledge the basic CDC report about what happened at a Georgia YMCA summer camp back in June. Kids not only can be infected, *they also can spread the infection*. Take a minute to read this 
https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6931e1.htm
https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6931e1.htm
6/ Note that all campers & staff had to provide a negative test result less than 2 weeks old prior to attending. So, they thought they were doing some due diligence for safety. Keep that 2 week window in mind regarding testing because we’ll be coming back to it later. It matters.
7/ Now, look at this 258 trainees/staff for 3 days then joined by 363 campers. One week after the staff arrived, a counselor was confirmed sick & they started sending kids home. Kids arrived June 21; the camp was shut June 27. One week. How many then tested positive?
258 trainees/staff for 3 days then joined by 363 campers. One week after the staff arrived, a counselor was confirmed sick & they started sending kids home. Kids arrived June 21; the camp was shut June 27. One week. How many then tested positive?
8/ Almost 600 people (kids & adults) were at the camp. “Test results were available for 344 (58%) attendees; among these, 260 (76%) were positive.” So, infections in 76% *of those tested*. Hundreds infected. Now, take a minute to realize *all those people went home to others*.
9/ Realize that, with that attack rate, there were infections amongst the other 200 they didn’t have test results for, too. Understand that the hundreds infected then exposed others back home & it’s highly likely people in their households were also infected in turn.
10/ And before people get sidetracked by the overnight aspect of the camp: I ran large YMCA summer camps for years; I know that camp & its facilities; the majority of activities took place *outdoors* until night. Students in schools will be *indoors* for hours, masks optional.
11/ And don’t get sidetracked by claims the death rate for *kids* is really low. Yes I worry about kids, to say nothing about the long term health considerations we’re still unsure about, but *it’s not just kids*. It’s *also* all the people those kids, teachers, staff go home to.
12/ That’s the math & the scale of the issue that folks seem to be having such difficulty with. Schools are *deeply* intertwined with their communities. When just 100 kids/teachers/staff are infected, the spread will go far, far beyond that 100.
13/ The vast majority of kids are not orphans living in the wilderness like characters in a YA fantasy novel. They live in homes with others & in communities where they & the adults they live with interact with still more people out in the community.
14/ Assume 100 infected kids, teachers, staff *only* infect 100 other people in their homes. One to one. You’ve now got 200 infected. But, they won’t know immediately, and if the debacle currently unfolding in GA is any guide, they’ll keep going to school, work, etc.
15/ Now, in places where community spread is *not* low, like Georgia, also consider that testing capabilities & results turnaround are stressed. So, those 100 infected by the kids/teachers/staff are likely out & about infecting *another* 100, who *also* are infecting still more.
16/ By the end of two weeks when test results come back, in the school conditions we’re seeing & will continue to see, you’ve got a new community outbreak of hundreds & hundreds that extends far beyond school grounds & is spreading, because it’ll already be too late.
17/ The schools will move back online, but those 2 weeks of face to face instruction seeded an outbreak that will continue long past that. Kids will be back at home, but hundreds of adults also will have been infected. Some will fall ill/die. The community will take another hit.
18/ Now, using the optimistic 1 to 1 infection rate, consider what happens when you have, say, 100,000 kids in face to face schools, plus all the adults they’ll interact with. Imagine the spikes in spread you’ll see when 100,000+ people are in high risk situations for hours.
19/A camp w/approx. 600 had 100s of infections amongst *just attendees*. Imagine the numbers that will be infected in your community, not just at the schools. Imagine how that’ll play out when the outbreaks are happening *all in the same timeframe* across your state/the country.
20/ Now, think carefully. Are those two weeks of face to face instruction, after which schools will be back online, really worth the outbreaks they’ll cause in your community? Are a couple weeks worth the spread, the long term health complications, the deaths beyond the schools?
H/T to @Godblsmnymkr who reminded me abt the COVID risk calculator by GaTech folks & others: https://covid19risk.biosci.gatech.edu
Use it & think: If the risk in your school’s zip is high that at least 1 person in a group of 25 is infected, why put kids in close contact for hours w/more?
Use it & think: If the risk in your school’s zip is high that at least 1 person in a group of 25 is infected, why put kids in close contact for hours w/more?
To help folks understand further why this all matters, especially in states with high spread and limited testing or delayed test results, I’ll be adding tweets/papers like this
https://twitter.com/scottgottliebmd/status/1291520512988868609?s=21 https://twitter.com/scottgottliebmd/status/1291520512988868609
https://twitter.com/scottgottliebmd/status/1291520512988868609?s=21 https://twitter.com/scottgottliebmd/status/1291520512988868609
This audio of Jeff Fuller, of the @pauldingboe, illustrates why your local elections matter. Mr. Fuller’s comments indicate a marked disinterest in conducting responsible research, poor to nonexistent critical thinking skills & shocking innumeracy.
https://twitter.com/freeyourmindkid/status/1291536120409395200?s=21 https://twitter.com/freeyourmindkid/status/1291536120409395200
https://twitter.com/freeyourmindkid/status/1291536120409395200?s=21 https://twitter.com/freeyourmindkid/status/1291536120409395200
Related Sidenote: 90 seconds worth watching...
YOU SAY VOTE with Jesse Williams
YOU SAY VOTE with Jesse Williams
@CobbSchools have wisely chosen to begin the school year online. Good on them. Why? Because they recognize the damage 100 infections can do. https://www.wsbtv.com/news/local/cobb-county/cobb-county-schools-reports-100-cases-covid-19-among-students-staff/U5U7V6ULX5DNZO2Q2UIWPWUFBU/
https://twitter.com/freeyourmindkid/status/1291824159044108289?s=21 https://twitter.com/freeyourmindkid/status/1291824159044108289
So, Woodstock High School sent this alert in which they reference the Exposure plan. I have questions, because there appear to be discrepancies between the plan & their response.
https://twitter.com/led0ux_/status/1291821472034574336?s=21 https://twitter.com/led0ux_/status/1291821472034574336
in which they reference the Exposure plan. I have questions, because there appear to be discrepancies between the plan & their response.https://twitter.com/led0ux_/status/1291821472034574336?s=21 https://twitter.com/led0ux_/status/1291821472034574336
1. Did the student attend f2f classes?
2. Were the desks all 6+ feet from each other?
3. Was the student masked all day?
4. Did the student spend 15+ minutes in a classroom, unmasked & not physically distanced?
5. Does the reference to (non) “class” closure mean all 11th graders?
2. Were the desks all 6+ feet from each other?
3. Was the student masked all day?
4. Did the student spend 15+ minutes in a classroom, unmasked & not physically distanced?
5. Does the reference to (non) “class” closure mean all 11th graders?
Folks, @Freeyourmindkid is doing hard work to get info like this out there. Use it to think critically about the risks involving schools in your area and lend your support to your schools, districts, and BOEs doing right by their communities.
https://twitter.com/freeyourmindkid/status/1291842533950140418?s=21 https://twitter.com/freeyourmindkid/status/1291842533950140418
https://twitter.com/freeyourmindkid/status/1291842533950140418?s=21 https://twitter.com/freeyourmindkid/status/1291842533950140418
Note the confirmed cases in that letter were identified *prior* to much of this week. Schools in places like Paulding & Cherokee are now playing a morbid game of whack-a-mole, quarantining case-by-case as/if they learn of them until it becomes too much.
https://twitter.com/freeyourmindkid/status/1291842533950140418?s=21 https://twitter.com/freeyourmindkid/status/1291842533950140418
https://twitter.com/freeyourmindkid/status/1291842533950140418?s=21 https://twitter.com/freeyourmindkid/status/1291842533950140418
