3 games into the series (5x5 score adjusted):

Oilers have the better shot attempts (51.2%), high danger shot attempts (61.1%), expected goals (57.5%).

Shots on goal & scoring chances are about even.

Losing on save % (.856 vs .889)

(1/

Special Teams:

Hawks have more PP time (8:30/game vs 7:37/game, including more 5x3 time)

But, Oilers have outscored the Hawks on the PP (15.1 goals/60 vs 10.0 goals/60)

Basically the Oilers have outscored the Hawks 5-4 on special teams despite less time.

End of the day, the Oilers have been the better team 5x5 through 3 games. They’ve been the better team on special teams. They’ve been scoring. The Hawks have the 2nd worst save percentage of the play-in round.

Problem is the Oilers have the worst Sv%. And it’s both goalies.

Smith had an atrocious game 1 by any measure. However, Koskinen has not been good by raw save percentage or when accounting for shot quality.

In the playoffs, the goalie is everything. Neither team has it but the Oilers have been worse.

https://twitter.com/chartinghockey/status/1291359583206809601?s=21 https://twitter.com/chartinghockey/status/1291359583206809601

The Oilers can do whatever they want with the lines or the pairings. Tweak whatever they need to. Fact is one of Smith or Koskinen needs to provide league average goaltending. If they don’t get that, it’s possible little else matters.