1/ What would Martial be worth as a FORWARD? [Thread]

I'll be breaking down his minutes, expected goals and assists, and what being a forward will mean for his points.
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2/ Since moving to a forward position, Martial has kept the same xG90 as the previous season (~0.45) and the same xA90 as the previous season (~0.17). I'll be using these in my calculations.

I'm going to calculate this in 2 ways.
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3/ The first, assuming he plays the same minutes as this season (Injured a bit). The second, assuming he plays a normal amount of minutes for a striker (~3100). This will give an idea of what he is capable of when fit.

I'll call these Injured and Fit.
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4/ Assuming he is injured (2625 mins), I've estimated 30 starts, 1 sub. (61 points). For fit (3222 mins) I've taken the second half of the season and extrapolated to give 38 starts. He started all 19 last games of the season (76 points). #FPL #FPLCommunity

5/ As a forward, Martial misses out on the ~14 clean sheet points he would be expected to get.

For injured Martial, I would expect him to score 16 goals and get 4.7 assists (+2 fantasy assists). This gives extra points of ~78, 16 less than if he were a mid. #FPL #FPLCommunity

6/ For fit Martial, I would expect him to score 19.7 goals and get 5.7 assists (+2 fantasy assists). This gives extra points of ~96, 19.7 less than if he were a mid.

Combine this with his base points gives injured Martial 139 points and fit Martial 172. #FPL #FPLCommunity

7/ Minus on average 2 yellows a season gives 137 and 170.

Had Martial been a forward this season, he would have achieved 21 bonus instead of 14. A gain of 7 (50%). Martial's Bonus per goal last season would have therefore been 1.24. #FPL #FPLCommunity

8/ This is important to help us scale his bonus to next season.

Injured Martial would get an estimated (16 x 1.24) ~20 bonus.
Fit Martial would get an estimated (19.7 x 1.24) ~24.5 bonus.

Add these numbers onto the previous gives us 157 for injured and ~195 for fit Martial #FPL

9/ To give these some context, Kane scored 158, Firmino 155, with Jiminez at 194 and Ings at 198 this season.

I personally believe that should Martial remain fit, he would be a good option at 10.5 and under. #FPL #FPLCommunity

10/ I can actually see FPL towers pricing him at 9.5-10 (Firmino price) which would be a fantastic deal should he stay fit! #FPL #FPLCommunity

11/ TL;DR Martial as a forward would get a lot more bonus, something he struggles with. He'll be down about 26 points by moving up the pitch but I believe there could be good value depending on the pricing (10 and lower would be brill). #FPL #FPLCommunity

12/ Thanks for reading, feel free to follow for more coming soon! #FPL #FPLCommunity