Having spoken to senior people in Brussels on #Brexit, a short thread. They expect the crunch in late Sep or Oct. For now they think @DavidGHFrost lacks a mandate to make the compromises that wd advance the talks. They think HMG divided on whether it wants a deal. @CER_EU /1

The key to unlocking a deal is for UK to make a proposal for its state aid regime. Everything else wd then fall into place, including fish, which being so political will be the last issue to be settled. When EU happy on state aid and level playing field it'll move on fish. /2

Everyone knows what the LPF compromise will be: UK will promise not to lower standards, EU'll have right to punish UK if it does. EU side - even France - can envisage compromises on financial services equivalence & data adequacy (though recent ECJ ruling makes latter harder). /3

But a new area of concern on EU side: citizens' rights. UK wants less generous provisions on health and social security for EU citizens in UK than EU does for Brits in EU. However, EU happy that UK has softened its line on justice & home affairs; and on the N Ireland protocol./4

A few EU governments, including France, have some concerns about @MichelBarnier. They say they are unsure of his strategy; and think he is so keen to strike a deal that he may be too willing to compromise with the UK. They have told him not to lean too far to the British. /ENDS