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lunatic mayor and budding authoritarian eric garcetti has been running a strict lockdown and demanding mask wear in LA for some time
yet reported cases are spiking. so now he wants more crackdowns
but the data is not on his side. this is not nor was it ever about re-opening
yet reported cases are spiking. so now he wants more crackdowns
but the data is not on his side. this is not nor was it ever about re-opening
the chart above shows new cases in LA adjusted for the testing level per city data vs google mobility data.
LA had been steadily opening from 4/8 until 5/30.
no rise in cases
then two things happened in LA: the floyd protests hit and their hope-simpson flu season started.
LA had been steadily opening from 4/8 until 5/30.
no rise in cases
then two things happened in LA: the floyd protests hit and their hope-simpson flu season started.
flu comes in season and covid follows by 4-6 weeks or so.
so you'd expect a july peak, and that's just what we got.
it was probably accelerated by the big kick that protests gave to social percolation.
it was also accelerated by influx from mexico who has same seasonality
so you'd expect a july peak, and that's just what we got.
it was probably accelerated by the big kick that protests gave to social percolation.
it was also accelerated by influx from mexico who has same seasonality
but even this triple kick which roughly doubled case count did not bring cases back above march and april levels, a level LA cruised over with little to no real strain.
so what is garcetti playing at?
he's either statistically illiterate or there is some other game here.
so what is garcetti playing at?
he's either statistically illiterate or there is some other game here.
LA has been more mask wearing and MUCH more locked down than US as a whole. yet they are now seeing cases rise vs most of US falling.
when it's your covid season, you get covid. it's that simple.
from japan to peru to the phillipines and mexico, everyone is learning this.
when it's your covid season, you get covid. it's that simple.
from japan to peru to the phillipines and mexico, everyone is learning this.
and when disease has reached herd immunity, which looks to be 12-25% in nearly everyplace, it recedes of its own accord.
it's gompertz curves all around. lockdown does not change that.
masks do not change that.
it's gompertz curves all around. lockdown does not change that.
masks do not change that.
it's starting to look pretty clear to me that many of the lockdown governors and mayors from newsom to cuomo, deblasio to garcetti have another issue in mind than your safety: solvency
they have wrecked the finances of their states and cities
and they desperately need bailouts
they have wrecked the finances of their states and cities
and they desperately need bailouts
i have not run the analysis yet in any rigorous fashion, but from "eyeballing" it looks to me like all the most determined lockdowners are the ones that most desperately need federal aid.
and so they cannot let the crisis end.
they need hostages to get the money.
and so they cannot let the crisis end.
they need hostages to get the money.
i'm hoping to dig into this issue in more quantitative fashion and see if this intuition holds.
thoughts on where to get data and what are the best metrics for measuring budget stress would be appreciated.
thoughts on where to get data and what are the best metrics for measuring budget stress would be appreciated.
