1\\ What follows is a thread summarizing what we know about COVID-19

Others more knowledgeable than I will continue to hash out the details, but at this point the data speaks clearly, and I see no point in continuing to tweet about it

Summary: COVID-19 is not a big deal

2\\ COVID-19 is harmless to children. Many countries have not had a single death among the young. And even in large countries like the US, COVID-19 killed fewer kids this year than the flu did

If you support keeping schools closed, you're a moron. It's that simple.

3\\ Lockdowns do not work. We have data from ~200 countries and even more sub-regions, and there is no link between the timing and stringency of lockdowns and subsequent disease progression

If you support lockdowns, you are just superstitious and afraid

4\\ Lockdowns killed more than COVID-19 killed. In the developed world, this happened through suicides, overdoses, murders, missed cancer screenings, and stroke victims not seeking care

In the 3rd world, through malnutrition and skipping vaccinations

Karen was the real killer

5\\ Herd immunity happens when 10-30% of the population has been infected, not the 60% that you'd expect from an R0 of 2.5

This is probably due to the fact that we have cross reactive antibodies and T cells from past common cold Coronaviruses

6\\ Much of the COVID-19 death toll was due to the northern hemisphere having had two back-to-back mild flu seasons

In many places, the average COVID-19 victim had already lived beyond his country's life expectancy

Had the media not named it, you'd never have heard of COVID-19

7\\ The data on mask usage is crummy, but the best data probably suggests that masks do nothing.

If masks make you feel good, congrats. You should also sleep with a garlic wreath and a silver dagger to ward off vampires

8\\ Despite lockdowns definitely not working, and masks probably not working, the COVID-19 death toll will be a bit worse than an average "bad" flu year, but much less than a really bad flu year

We all just panicked.

9\\ COVID-19 being "novel" does not make panicking wise

Every flu is novel--that's why we keep getting them--and some flus kill tens of millions. Yet we don't lock down for flus.

So locking down for COVID-19 was inexcusable

10\\ Hydroxychloroquine may or may not work. But the studies claiming it doesn't work were literal frauds, committed by people who cared more about seeing Trump be wrong than about savings lives.

I'm very curious to see real data on *early* dosing with HCQ

11\\ Acquired resistance to COVID-19 is long lasting; at least 10 months based on the lack of relapses so far

And given the evidence for common Coronavirus T cell and antibody cross resistance, probably much longer than 10 months

12\\ We still don't know about long term side effects, but 90% of the hobgoblins you hear about (Kawasaki Like Disease, Ground Glass Opacities) will turn out to be nonsense

Most people would be equally surprised to learn about long term flu complications

13\\ Test-and-trace is a fantasy in any large, pluralistic society. It probably does more harm, through stoking panic, than it does good

It only works in small, culturally homogeneous places like Sweden, Iceland, South Korea

14\\ Journos sell you clicks, they don't sell the truth. Public health officials have their jobs because they didn't have the brains to work at Subway. Epidemiologists are terrible at stats and yearn for a real pandemic. Politicians feed on crisis the way Popeye feeds on spinach

15\\15 Civilization is skin deep. The second your neighbors get scared, 80% of them revert to a primal conformity.

Take note of who around you kept their head, and make them part of your mental family.

Cheers, guys!

Back to dad puns and random econ posts!