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1) In 2017 I predicted the UK would become an oligarchy in an interview with JJ Patrick on Byline Times- now, three years later, the process and its links to Russia are undeniable. But how can we "imagine" this transformation this war, so that we can win it?
2) The conflict is between two social models that can be defined simplistically as authoritarian or oligarchic populism and popular sovereignty. The first model relies on pseudo elections with choice being controlled- the second is based on voters freely choosing
3) Popular sovereignty is an aspiration rather than a reality and the "liberal democracies" were always arguably finely tuned oligarchies. But their politicians believed in accountability and the ballot box.
4) However, a new kind of society rose on the ruins of the soviet empire, one in which the intelligence services, the mafia/oligarchs, and politics were closely intertwined. It utilised Soviet era military techniques updated for the digital age.
5) A trans national Russophone oligarchic caste had rise on the ruins of the Soviet empire and controls Russia now. It has links to other oligarchs globally and a political agenda - transforming "liberal democracies" into "oligarchic populist" states.
6) In oligarchic populist states ballots are controlled by repression, censorship and targetted propaganda on social media- elites maintain loyalty through terror and patronage.
7) The UK took two crucial steps towards this model in 2016 I) it accepted a referendum that was rigged II) It supported politicians who despise the notion of democracy as popular choice and indeed the wider public.
8) Johnson is an autocrat who despises the working class- Cummings is an elitist who admires Putin's "Grey Cardinal" Surkov and despises the poor. Popular opinion is there to bev manipulated by populist slogans- accountability is a hindrance.
9) The government will utilise data mining combined with populism (dog whistling racism) and a compliant oligarchic press - Cummings and Johnson are ultimately tools of the oligarchs who sponsor this model.
10) It will also rely on alliances with the trans national oligarchy, foreign intelligence services, corruption and patronage- hence the peerages for Jo Johnson and the ghastly Lebedev.
11) Johnson benefitted from massive Russian intervention in Brexit- the peerage to a KGB officer's son signals that he embraces foreign influence in his interest.
12) If Russia and the trans national oligarchy and its media are the foes of popular sovereignty then who are its allies?
13) Civic society in countries threatened by Russian expansionism, that element of the domestic population which opposes the manipulation of popular opinion by data mining, oligarchised theatrical politics etc.
14) My assessment is that the UK is too compromised to revive in the near term and that unless it clearly understands what is happening any recovery is uncertain.
15) The sectarian left (STWUK etc) are part of the problem and have links to Surkov and Russia- oligarchic tools to manipulate opinion. The sectarian right which is now essentially in power may be a greater risk in the UK- but they are both part of the transformation
16) What is happening in the Uk can only be addressed by a combination of measures including an overhaul of the voting system and treating foreign influence on politics and journalism in some instances as a national security issue.
17) It depends on electing politicians who are culturally democratic viewing a defeat as a chance for political renewal and who are genuinely patriotic and care for rather than despising their compatriots.
18) Above all else it depends on recognising the risks posed by Russian subversion acting in tandem with the UK's own trans national oligarchy and taking the steps required to tackle them. But I see no possibility of that as yet. ENDS
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