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Trump’s election delay Tweets are nonsense. But here’s a Friday afternoon nightmare scenario for you to ponder:
An Electoral College tie, with the presidency coming down to four competitive House seats. 1/
An Electoral College tie, with the presidency coming down to four competitive House seats. 1/
We get an Electoral College tie if EITHER of these things happen:
Biden wins the Clinton states plus PA + either ME02 or NE02
OR
Biden wins the Clinton states plus MI and BOTH WI and AZ. 3/
Biden wins the Clinton states plus PA + either ME02 or NE02
OR
Biden wins the Clinton states plus MI and BOTH WI and AZ. 3/
It’s not hard to see how that could happen. Biden is close in both ME02 and NE02, and the other states are legit battlegrounds. 4/
Either way, it’s a tie that goes to the House to resolve, a la Hamilton, Act II.
Ok, so what then? 5/
Ok, so what then? 5/
Let’s presume there are no other lasting shenanigans by Trump minions. That means only one, undisputed slate of electors arrives at Congress from each state. 6/
In an EC tie, the House votes by state delegation, and each state gets one vote. Under the current makeup of Congress, Trump would win, because R’s lead 26-23 in state delegations, with one tied.
But... 7/
But... 7/
...the EC results will be reported to the NEW Congress on January 6. To get to a delegation majority, Dems must start by holding most of their seats, including some tougher ones. 8/
It means holding IA (Finkenauer, Axne, and Loebsack-open), ME (Golden), MN (Peterson) and, VA (Luria and Spanberger). Not easy, but very doable.
Still, that's obviously not enough. 9/
Still, that's obviously not enough. 9/
Dems would also need to pick up one seat each in FL (probably Spano); MI (Amash-open); MT (Gianforte-Open) AND PA10 (Perry) 10/
There are somewhat tougher backup options if they fall short in one or more of those: Alaska (by adding 1 seat), North Carolina (+4 seats), and Texas (+6 seats). None of that is as crazy as it sounds. 11/
So, yeah, the presidency could come down to the results in four or more close House races.
Have a nice weekend! END/
Have a nice weekend! END/
