Latest from Mr. Milton.

Chose to go public so their company could have more oversight to not end up like WeWork, which was scammed by its insane CEO.
"Weight is everything in trucking"

No, it's not. Some loads gross-out, many more do not.
"This narrow window happens to be a trillion dollar industry:...weight-sensitive loads, long-range... over-the-road freight"

Yes, this is the mkt for FCEVs. Is it $1T?
$1T/$700k = 1.4M trucks = ~36% of all registered Class 8 trucks or 55-70% Class 8 trucks sold per year for 10 years.

1.4M FCEV trucks would require 825 billion kWh/yr = ~200 Hoover Dams

My estimate is this market he's talking about is 5-15% of the class 8 market
A kg of H2 will drive a truck "8 miles"

Investor slides from April say 7.5 mi/kg
"We've been able to drive hydrogen down to under $4 a kg, we're about $3 a kg now"


It's easy to say "we plan to" or "we've shown at small scale"... etc.

This is misleading to me.
Compares Apple making 25-100 M phones/yr (actual ~200M) to scaling a station from a few dozen (39 in US right now) to 1000s to be able to bring H2 from $14/kg to $3/kg

Possible? Maybe, where's the proof?

They need to launch with this pricing, not expect to reach it in 10 yrs
Stations were costing $50M and now they're "under $15M"

Deck from June says $16.6M

Does purely reducing the capex for the station make the H2 produced cheaper?

3.3x reduction in cost per station = ~4x in reduction of cost of H2 produced?
Assumes that Tesla will just randomly place their truck chargers are they did their Superchargers.

He's right you need to go where the trucks are. Ya think Tesla didn't think of that too?
"When Nikola sells a truck we can make almost a quarter-million a truck"

Investor slides say $200k/truck w/o station capex or $173k with it.

Did something change? Or is he just being fast and loose with key numbers?

$250k is 25% larger than $200k. Big diff!
"We create 10 to 20 times more revenue per truck than our competition"

$700k/truck revenue planned for $NKLA

Can you buy a $70k Class 8 truck? Perhaps a cheap one with a huge volume buy (e.g. Walmart buying 10k trucks at once). Doubtful.

A $35k truck? Not a chance!
"It's not easy to switch from one truck to a whole brand new one, it's a complicated mess"

1) Agree on a delivery date
2) Customer determines which leases end around that date
3) New trucks replace the old ones

I don't get what's so hard. They do the same thing w/ ICE trucks
"We actually have the first battery electric truck coming to market, beating Tesla" "middle to the end of next year"

Their planned SOP is 10-17 months away, so no way to know if this is true or not yet
Autonomy is a commodity?

Their approach makes sense given their volume, but a commodity is a stretch
"Would be a prick move" to name his company Nikola b/c of association with Tesla Inc.'s name

"Probably some good that can come of it" naming it this way

Could be true, likely unprovable either way
$NKLA Badger pricing: "60-90k" w/ "somewhere right around 20% margin" and it "hits next year"

If this startup with 400 employees can announce, design, and build an affordable, profitable EV F-150 competitor in <2 yrs, why wouldn't others? How will they beat Rivian/Ford at least?
Trevor on Tesla:

"I really hope they focus on getting out what they've promised"

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