Midday analysis on #Isaias as it pertains to South Florida now posted. Here’s a thread of the transcript:

“Isaías strengthened into a #Hurricane late last night and the #Bahamas are now under a Hurricane Warning.”

1/

https://www.facebook.com/johnmoralesnbc6/posts/1216893768657822?comment_id=1216914528655746&reply_comment_id=1216928978654301&notif_id=1596213722549861&notif_t=feed_comment&ref=notif

"A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for SE #Florida including Broward and Miami-Dade counties due to the chance for tropical storm conditions late Saturday and Saturday night. In other words, hurricane conditions are not expected, and tropical storm conditions are possible” 2/

“ @NWSMiami provides an excellent graphic on their tropical webpage (link below) which graphically shows you the 'reasonable worst-case scenario' for our area. I’m including a pic of this graphic here.”

https://www.weather.gov/srh/tropical?office=mfl#

3/

[click on Threats & Impacts tab]

"This scenario has a 10% chance of occurring, as per the NWS definition. For example, if that reasonable worst-case scenario showed potential winds of 100+ miles per hour, I would be recommending that you be putting up or closing your shutters"

Instead it shows Miami’s worst-case for winds in the low-end of tropical storm force – 39 to 57 mph. For Fort Lauderdale the worst-case is a high-end tropical storm wind of 58 to 73 mph. This helps you make an informed decision of 'preparing for the worst and hoping for the best'

"If you go to their page, you can click on your neighborhood, a window pops showing the actual forecast for Ft Lauderdale (as of 11 AM) of peak winds 30-40 mph gusting to 55 mph. But you can read on for the potential wind of 58 to 73 mph – the worst case.”

6/

"Winds of 30-40 is the condition Ft Lauderdale is likely to see. 58-73 is the condition Ft Lauderdale is very unlikely to experience, though not impossible. There has been remarkable consistency in the U.S. GFS model in placing a hurricane north of the W End of Grand Bahama”

7/

"The GFS ensemble has some members that bring a weaker tropical storm to make landfall in Florida, but all stronger solutions are for a hurricane to stay offshore. The same applies to the European ECMWF ensemble. Some of the 50 members of the ensemble show a tropical storm..”

8/

"making landfall in #Florida, but every track for a strong Isaías keeps the #hurricane offshore. Right now the National Hurricane Center is forecasting a 90 MPH hurricane in the northwest Bahamas.”

(image courtesy @weatherbell)

9/

"Bottom line: Isaías intensity has remained steady-state since last night as it now reaches southern #Bahamas. It is moving NW & forecast to start moving NNW then N this weekend. The turn is particularly likely if it remains a hurricane, even more so if it strengthens further”

"If upper level wind shear weakens Isaías, then there’s a chance for a closer encounter with Florida. That is why there’s a Tropical Storm Warning in effect locally. There’s also a Hurricane Watch from Palm Beach County to Indian River County. But the official forecast from NHC”

“...has Isaías passing 80 miles away from Miami on Saturday, placing the entire metro area in the weaker SW side of the hurricane. Miami has a 30% chance of experiencing tropical storm force winds and a 1% chance of hurricane winds.”

12/

"Fort Lauderdale has a 56% chance of experiencing tropical storm force winds and a 5% chance of hurricane winds.”

13/13 fin

Traducido al castellano aquí:

https://www.facebook.com/johnmoralesnbc6/posts/1216893768657822?comment_id=1216914528655746&reply_comment_id=1216928978654301&notif_id=1596213722549861&notif_t=feed_comment&ref=notif