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#COVIDDynamics starting now: https://cpd.ucsd.edu/covid19/073120.html. 1st hour: 4 scientists:
1) @trvrb - Trevor Bedford
2) @firefoxx66 - Emma Hodcroft ( https://nextstrain.org/ )
2) @BillHanage - Bill Hanage
3) @cmyeaton - Caitline Rivers
1) @trvrb - Trevor Bedford
2) @firefoxx66 - Emma Hodcroft ( https://nextstrain.org/ )
2) @BillHanage - Bill Hanage
3) @cmyeaton - Caitline Rivers
. @firefoxx66 now explaining mutations in viruses (= typos, most don't change "sense") #COVIDDynamics (Folks, she's really good at this! You should be using her videos for teaching.)
Really important Qs from @HelenBranswell:
1) is the huge outbreak in the US now "seeding" outbreaks elsewhere?
2) slowing down from diminution of global travel?
#COVIDdynamics
1) is the huge outbreak in the US now "seeding" outbreaks elsewhere?
2) slowing down from diminution of global travel?
#COVIDdynamics
Now up: @BillHanage, "Uncertainty, Science & Communication in the Pandemic"
- we're updating our information all the time
- there are SO many things people don't know
"How to be usefully wrong": groping our way forwards.
#COVIDdynamics
- we're updating our information all the time
- there are SO many things people don't know
"How to be usefully wrong": groping our way forwards.
#COVIDdynamics
More from @BillHanage: Three types of information:
1) facts (what we know to be true)
2) interpretation (what we think about what we know to be true)
3) speculation (why did X happen?)
#COVIDdynamics
1) facts (what we know to be true)
2) interpretation (what we think about what we know to be true)
3) speculation (why did X happen?)
#COVIDdynamics
More from @BillHanage. Hot button issues (and why there are variables):
1) masks - causality & experiment
2) reproductive number (R0) - why non-pharmaceutical interventions have been affective
3) transmission routes
#COVIDdynamics
1) masks - causality & experiment
2) reproductive number (R0) - why non-pharmaceutical interventions have been affective
3) transmission routes
#COVIDdynamics
Questions for @BillHanage:
1) from @HelenBranswell: how do we tell what's going on w/ children? A: how to devise a study? Best right now: compare what's going on in different countries. E.g., compare Sweden w/ other countries. They closed colleges & high schools, but not lower.
1) from @HelenBranswell: how do we tell what's going on w/ children? A: how to devise a study? Best right now: compare what's going on in different countries. E.g., compare Sweden w/ other countries. They closed colleges & high schools, but not lower.
Now up: @cmyeaton, summarizing report with 10 recommendations. Some points:
1) communities that are doing badly need to turn things around. Close down high risk settings. (Outside activities are OK.)
2-3) re: PPE & testing supplies. Still not enough of either!
#COVIDdynamics
1) communities that are doing badly need to turn things around. Close down high risk settings. (Outside activities are OK.)
2-3) re: PPE & testing supplies. Still not enough of either!
#COVIDdynamics
More from Caitlin Rivers ( @cmyeaton):
more on PPE: long-term care & incarceration communities - these must be prioritized. And they must be assured that these will continue to be available.
4) we need to make better use of data we already have. E.g. contact tracing
#COVIDdynamics
more on PPE: long-term care & incarceration communities - these must be prioritized. And they must be assured that these will continue to be available.
4) we need to make better use of data we already have. E.g. contact tracing
#COVIDdynamics
More from Caitlin Rivers ( @cmyeaton):
5) do more to plan for vaccine. It's never just been about finding the vaccine. It's about manufacturing it; delivering it (syringes, distribution); deciding *now* what the priorities will be about who gets it 1st. Need to address hesitancy.
5) do more to plan for vaccine. It's never just been about finding the vaccine. It's about manufacturing it; delivering it (syringes, distribution); deciding *now* what the priorities will be about who gets it 1st. Need to address hesitancy.
More from Caitlin Rivers ( @cmyeaton):
Even the perception of irregularities generates doubt. We need to have confidence in regulatory processes and communication.
#COVIDdynamics
Even the perception of irregularities generates doubt. We need to have confidence in regulatory processes and communication.
#COVIDdynamics
Q from @kakape: US & UK have been great on modelling, but they've also handled the pandemic terribly. Does modelling create false sense of confidence? Did we use the models in the wrong way?
A: who makes the models vs who makes the decisions - they're different people.
A: who makes the models vs who makes the decisions - they're different people.
Q from @HelenBranswell: how the US handling all the questions about vaccine delivery?
A: @cmyeaton - some things are going well, others are opaque.
#COVIDdynamics
A: @cmyeaton - some things are going well, others are opaque.
#COVIDdynamics
Now up: #scicomm speakers reflecting on their experiences:
1) Mercy Korir ( @DrMercyKorir)
most challenging: 1) working with absence of evidence. 2) Delivering information to vastly diverse audiences
#COVIDdynamics
1) Mercy Korir ( @DrMercyKorir)
most challenging: 1) working with absence of evidence. 2) Delivering information to vastly diverse audiences
#COVIDdynamics
Now up: @HelenBranswell
Several of the same issues. (Hydroxychloroquine trolls!)
She's been thinking about this for years: 2009 flu pandemic (quite mild, in comparison). This is overwhelming: there is so much information. So many stories! Vaccines. Hadn't anticipated science/ ..
Several of the same issues. (Hydroxychloroquine trolls!)
She's been thinking about this for years: 2009 flu pandemic (quite mild, in comparison). This is overwhelming: there is so much information. So many stories! Vaccines. Hadn't anticipated science/ ..
... politics split.
#COVIDdynamics
#COVIDdynamics
Now up: @kakape.
1) how to translate science jargon. His list: word; what do you think it means? (E.g., what does "model" mean?) There are words that *seem* to mean the same thing, but they don't (e.g., "mutation").
#COVIDdynamics
1) how to translate science jargon. His list: word; what do you think it means? (E.g., what does "model" mean?) There are words that *seem* to mean the same thing, but they don't (e.g., "mutation").
#COVIDdynamics
More from @kakape.
2) having to unlearn, as a journalist, what he learned in university. Example of Ebola in Liberia: did the virus change? The virus hadn't changed. It was affecting a new society; traumatic experience of civil wars.
#COVIDdynamics
2) having to unlearn, as a journalist, what he learned in university. Example of Ebola in Liberia: did the virus change? The virus hadn't changed. It was affecting a new society; traumatic experience of civil wars.
#COVIDdynamics
3) differences btw #scicomm & political journalism. In this pandemic, that model of political journalism (focus on "both sides") doesn't work. You're writing in a constantly uncertain stage; you're showing the current balance of the evidence.
#COVIDdynamics
#COVIDdynamics
Open Q&A:
1) how do you communicate to audience that's not scientifically literate. (E.g., New Zealand more generally literate; conspiracy theories get tamped down quickly.)
#COVIDdynamics
1) how do you communicate to audience that's not scientifically literate. (E.g., New Zealand more generally literate; conspiracy theories get tamped down quickly.)
#COVIDdynamics
A: Caitlin Rivers ( @cmyeaton): find voices in the community that are already trusted. (Shout-out to #SocialSciences!)
A: Mercy Korir ( @DrMercyKorir): delivery of messages sometimes wrong. Need to engage local leadership.
#COVIDdynamics
A: Mercy Korir ( @DrMercyKorir): delivery of messages sometimes wrong. Need to engage local leadership.
#COVIDdynamics
A: Kai Kupferschmidt ( @kakape): you're using up the trust you've already built up.
Assumption that all actors acting in good faith. In the US, that's not true! How do we deal w/ people actively trying to sabotage public health endeavors?
#COVIDdynamics
Assumption that all actors acting in good faith. In the US, that's not true! How do we deal w/ people actively trying to sabotage public health endeavors?
#COVIDdynamics
A: Helen Branswell ( @HelenBranswell): how do deal w/ crazy ideas? Don't you give them more oxygen?
A: Bill Hanage ( @BillHanage): if you don't, someone else will. Angela Merkel interview re: reproductive number. Example of communicating implications of the science to her people.
A: Bill Hanage ( @BillHanage): if you don't, someone else will. Angela Merkel interview re: reproductive number. Example of communicating implications of the science to her people.
Q: about people moving out of their lane.
A: Helen Branswell ( @HelenBranswell): I trust people who tell me: "I don't know about that. You should go talk to X, Y, or Z." Journalists have to be careful who they use as sources.
A: Kai ( @kakape): Beware of whoever has all the answer.
A: Helen Branswell ( @HelenBranswell): I trust people who tell me: "I don't know about that. You should go talk to X, Y, or Z." Journalists have to be careful who they use as sources.
A: Kai ( @kakape): Beware of whoever has all the answer.
A: @cmyeaton: scientists aren't trained to deal directly w/ the public.
A: @BillHanage: anxiety of having to have the answers.
A: @DrMercyKorir : going the extra mile to vet the source she's doing to
#COVIDdynamics
A: @BillHanage: anxiety of having to have the answers.
A: @DrMercyKorir : going the extra mile to vet the source she's doing to
#COVIDdynamics
