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NEW: Extraordinary document just published by SAGE sub-committee SPI-B (which focuses on behavioral science) on what it calls the risks of "widespread urban disorder" this summer. 1/
Government scientific advisers warn that there has been a "step change" in the threat of serious riots since 2011 but that police "are in a far weaker position" to respond. As a result, the response to any disorder "would be likely to require military support".
In the coming weeks and months, they say, the UK "will face grave challenges to public order". The country is "precariously balanced" and without government action, they warn, "amplification of the conditions for serious disorder in multiple locations is likely to develop".
This would have devastating consequences. They say: "Put simply, a serious deterioration of public order could overwhelm all attempts to control contagion, overwhelm hospitals, the criminal justice system and hinder revival of the economy." An extraordinarily stark warning.
That might sound far-fetched but not so, according to the scientists. They say there is a "high risk of civil disorder across multiple sites, with serious implications for public health".
Such a situation would mean "a security crisis would ensue, undermining public trust in the government and catastrophically undermining its Covid-19 recovery plans".
The decision to reopen pubs would "complicate these problems and introduce entirely new ones", they say.
The decision to reopen pubs would "complicate these problems and introduce entirely new ones", they say.
SPI-B members also said that there is evidence that some of the illegal raves and parties that have taken place were arranged and funded by Organised Crime Gangs "to create a market for drug supply". There is also evidence of links to "BLM protests and ideologies", they said.
It's hard to overstate how unusual the language in this report is. SAGE and its sub-committees do not usually make warnings as stark as this. The report was "considered" by the whole of SAGE on 2nd July - we don't know, though, what was discussed or what the response was.
