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The intensity forecast for #Isaias remains very challenging.
While westerly VWS will continue to affect Isaias the next 2-3 days, its magnitude & proximity of dry air nearby has been varying from model run to run, likely from difficult to predict internal convective processes.
While westerly VWS will continue to affect Isaias the next 2-3 days, its magnitude & proximity of dry air nearby has been varying from model run to run, likely from difficult to predict internal convective processes.
I envision 2 possible #Isaias scenarios:
1) Convection axis-symmeterizes around vortex, making it a vertically deep/stronger TC that is right/faster than mean track guidance.
2) Convection stays downshear of vortex, & a shallower/weaker TC moves left/slower & close to Florida.
1) Convection axis-symmeterizes around vortex, making it a vertically deep/stronger TC that is right/faster than mean track guidance.
2) Convection stays downshear of vortex, & a shallower/weaker TC moves left/slower & close to Florida.
Looking at the 00z ECMWF ensemble guidance for #Isaias, these scenarios are outlined on different sides of the track distribution. Stronger members are clearly on the east side while weaker members are on the west side (with many impacting Florida).
Much uncertainty >72h out.
Much uncertainty >72h out.