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There's been a lot of drivel related to this number, none of it helpful, but I'll write a few thoughts out below.
We need to consciously keep at the hand washing and social distancing measures. They still work. https://twitter.com/IrishTimes/status/1288892494734753793
We need to consciously keep at the hand washing and social distancing measures. They still work. https://twitter.com/IrishTimes/status/1288892494734753793
The 85 number in itself is no cause for alarm - largely down to demographics.
60% of those cases were men, almost 70% under 45 years old.
This is the exact demographic highly unlikely to need a hospital or ICU - and therefore places no *direct* pressure on healthcare systems.
60% of those cases were men, almost 70% under 45 years old.
This is the exact demographic highly unlikely to need a hospital or ICU - and therefore places no *direct* pressure on healthcare systems.
Indirect pressure depends on test/trace.
We see throughout Europe outbreaks in meat packing/construction sites are the easier type of outbreaks to contain.
The harder type to contain are outbreaks relating to house parties and nightclubs.
There are some intuitive reasons why.
We see throughout Europe outbreaks in meat packing/construction sites are the easier type of outbreaks to contain.
The harder type to contain are outbreaks relating to house parties and nightclubs.
There are some intuitive reasons why.
It's easy to quickly test and isolate an entire roster or workforce:
You know who the company employs and know where they live.
It's very difficult to contain a nightclub or random large house party, because often people can only name their own close circle of friends at it.
You know who the company employs and know where they live.
It's very difficult to contain a nightclub or random large house party, because often people can only name their own close circle of friends at it.
Somewhat ironically, an outbreak in a meat plant looks superficially worse.
Because it's so easy to test employees, it can produce a large number of positives in 1 single day.
Whereas a big house party can take days/weeks to trace&test everyone and straddles the positives out.
Because it's so easy to test employees, it can produce a large number of positives in 1 single day.
Whereas a big house party can take days/weeks to trace&test everyone and straddles the positives out.
Outbreaks involving DP not a surprise.
The government committed to ending DP, but as currently constituted the living arrangements in most centers are the antithesis of social distancing.
This just adds to an already pathetic legacy of the scheme.
The government committed to ending DP, but as currently constituted the living arrangements in most centers are the antithesis of social distancing.
This just adds to an already pathetic legacy of the scheme.
In real terms, since Saturday:
Tests: 28,645
Positives: 173
Negativity Rate: 99.41%
That's our worst stretch of positives since the end of June.
But it's vital to underscore our low base of infection: 99.4% negativity is something many countries can't even dream of right now.
Tests: 28,645
Positives: 173
Negativity Rate: 99.41%
That's our worst stretch of positives since the end of June.
But it's vital to underscore our low base of infection: 99.4% negativity is something many countries can't even dream of right now.
Recent WHO guidelines stated countries testing regimes are deemed adequate/successful if they maintain consistent positivity rates 5% or below.
Ireland remain streets ahead of that 95% negativity guideline - we haven't even once dipped below 99% since the first week of June.
Ireland remain streets ahead of that 95% negativity guideline - we haven't even once dipped below 99% since the first week of June.
Out of 5 million, our hospitals are currently handling 6.
Not 6 hundred, or 6 thousand - just 6 people.
Covid outbreaks in younger adults only cause healthcare systems problems if outbreaks spread to older people, who are more at-risk of big consequences.
No sign of that yet.
Not 6 hundred, or 6 thousand - just 6 people.
Covid outbreaks in younger adults only cause healthcare systems problems if outbreaks spread to older people, who are more at-risk of big consequences.
No sign of that yet.
When you have an extremely low baseline level of infection as we do in Ireland, it can be jarring to see a number like 85.
But outbreaks in work facilities are inevitable regardless of infection control practices and it doesn't mean we're losing grip on things, yet.
But outbreaks in work facilities are inevitable regardless of infection control practices and it doesn't mean we're losing grip on things, yet.
For this to become a worrying situation, we would need to see rising trends in the median age of positive case and the numbers of people needing hospital.
As things stand, the trends are the reverse of that: younger adults (< 40) being infected, who are not needing hospital.
As things stand, the trends are the reverse of that: younger adults (< 40) being infected, who are not needing hospital.
Whole of society approach on hand washing and social distancing is still required to keep baseline infection low.
Human nature to subconsciously wash your hands fewer times when you're not seeing many deaths on the news.
But it's chicken and the egg stuff. Wash your hands :)
Human nature to subconsciously wash your hands fewer times when you're not seeing many deaths on the news.
But it's chicken and the egg stuff. Wash your hands :)
I don't know for certain how this will all go but I do know if I wash my hands and give people distance out walking, that I'm contributing in my own tiny way to it going well.
When society does that en masse, things go well.
Keep it up on those basic measures.
When society does that en masse, things go well.
Keep it up on those basic measures.
