A thread on how Karanka generally sets up his sides based on data, looking at Boro in 15/16 and Forest in 17/18 and 18/19. Run through each area on the pitch, style of player, best fit from Blues current squad and potential replacements, based purely on data from past two seasons
GK

Nothing fancy here, although generally decent with ball at feet. Pantillimon more involved than Konstantopolous was

Current options limited with Camp out of contract & Trueman potentially going on loan

Potential Options

Jason Steele - Brighton
Jack Bonham - Gillingham
FB

Full backs play a big part in Karanka’s set up and generally speaking had one more conservative full back and more attacking. Characterised by high passing volume and good accuracy, with the more attacking FB crossing and dribbling more. All above 60% defensive duels won
Currently Blues have a couple of good options at FB with Colin & Harding on the right and Pedersen & Seddon on the left. Pedersen numbers more in the mould of the conservative FB whilst Colin bridges between the two. Seddon numbers last year very similar to Osborn in 17/18 season
Rumours of Pedersen exit back in January may resurface this summer so a couple of options for Blues in this area in the attacking full back mould might be

Alessio Castro-Montes - Gent
Boli Bolingoli - Celtic
CB

Karanka operates with two very distinct styles of centre back. One of the two is a traditional stopper style centre back, good in the air, strong tackling & typically playing longer passes to the final 3rd but with a lower volume of passes. Ayala at Boro & Danny Fox at Forest
The second defined style of centre back is a more ball playing one. Gibson at Boro, Figueiredo & Hefele at Forest. Characterised by high pass volume & more accurate. More short passing but less forward & passes to final third. All defenders have defensive duels success above 70%
Blues currently only really have Dean and Roberts as senior centre backs. Both are much more in the stopper model, with Dean’s numbers across his Championship in line with those who played the role under Karanka. Roberts would be an adequate back up in this role based on data
Centre back is obviously an area Blues need to strengthen & I’d suggest recruiting a ball playing CB. Clarke-Salter’s data from this season stacks up well against those of Gibson & Fox. Potential options for the role

Jake Clarke-Salter - Chelsea
Mats Knoester - Heracles
DM

Similarly to the centre backs, Karanka uses two differing styles of defensive midfielder. One sitting deep, breaking up play, playing high volume of short passes, very little creativity.
The second is more offensive minded, still playing high volume of passes but with higher volume of long passes, passes to final 3rd and dribbles. Both styles of midfielder intercepting and winning more than 50% of defensive duels
Centre midfield is an area where Blues are not short on numbers. Sunjic is the obvious choice for the sitting midfield, with his data output from this season similar to those who played the role under Karanka. Kieftenbeld & Davis would provide adequate back up for this role
Blues have less of a natural fit for the more offensive midfield role based on numbers. Gary Gardner and Josh McEachran would be the best options but this would be an area to strengthen. Some potential options

Alex Mowatt - Barnsley
Joe Williams - Wigan
WM

At Boro, Karanka’s wide players in the 4231 were more accommodating to the target man style striker that was employed. Downing and Adomah played a high volume of crosses & played lots of passes to the penalty area.
At Forest, where the strikers were more mobile, the wide midfielders played more of an inside forward role, cutting in from wide areas. Lolley, Cash and Gil Dias all playing the role characterised by more dribbles, progressive runs, shots but less crosses and passes
Natural wide players is an area Blues are lacking in currently, Jeremie Bela being the only natural wide man. His and Crowley’s output from this season match similarly to the higher crossing winger, whilst Fran Villalba & Odin Bailey fit the inside forward role better
Blues need to strengthen out wide with Villalba potentially leaving and Crowley probably better suit centrally. Some potential options

Manuel Marras - Free
Alvaro Jimenez - Getafe
Nathan Holland - West Ham
AM

Pivotal to the way Karanka’s team play, the number 10 is very important. Former Blues man Diego Fabbrini was his first choice at Boro before bringing in Gaston Ramirez. High shots volume, lots of dribbles & plenty of touches in the box characterised his role
At Forest, Kieran Dowell and Joao Carvalho played the role. Here the role was characterised by lower shot volume, less dribbles and fewer touches in the box, probably because of the inside forwards & more mobile forward employed at the club
Blues fans have been crying out to see Dan Crowley assume the number 10 role at the club. His data output as an attacking midfielder during his career is similar to the players who played the role at Forest. He is really the only natural option at Blues to play the role
Blues have already been linked to Lovro Majer who plays in an attacking midfield role. Some other potential players based on data over the past two seasons

Duncan Watmore - Free
Oliver Burke - West Brom
CF

The main man up top, Karanka’s lone striker has varied across the seasons. In the 15/16 season at Boro, David Nugent was used as a target man, hence the wide midfielders crossing frequently. At Forest, Ben Brereton and Lewis Grabban were frequently used
These two proved more mobile options up front and characterised by lower pass volume, lower passes received, less aerial duels, more dribbles & less touches in the penalty area. Juke is one of the best target men in the country & his numbers are very similar to Nugent
On loan striker Scott Hogan is much more mobile and his numbers this season are much more similar to Lewis Grabban in 18/19. If Hogan doesn’t return next season, Blues could look at the following

Sam Surridge - Bournemouth
Kayden Jackson - Ipswich
Eamon Brophy - Kilmarnock
This is a very statistical look at how Karanka sets his teams up and the styles of players he uses. The players suggested are based purely on data output in one of the two previous seasons being similar to that of players previously used by Karanka
There are a host of other players that he may consider, including Daniel Ayala, Jack Colback, Adam Clayton etc, plus others that maybe don’t fit from a statistical point of view but are potential signings anyway. All data from wyscout

END OF THREAD
You can follow @blues_breakdown.
Tip: mention @twtextapp on a Twitter thread with the keyword “unroll” to get a link to it.

Latest Threads Unrolled:
Those who think consciousness raising & movement building are disconnected, or even a distraction from electoral politics have not paid attention to the history of social change.In this thread, we
Read more
The 2020s will be known as the Remote Work decadeA few predictions of what is likely to emerge[ a thread ] Third Space: Office and Working from Home will
Read more
1/29: Have you ever had a concept explained to you that helps frame complex issues you’ve been wrestling with and opens your eyes to new possibilities? A concept that I
Read more
By continuing to use the site, you are consenting to the use of cookies as explained in our Cookie Policy to improve your experience.