EUEXIT thread: This due to another where a conversation started on #Finland, #Netherlands, #Italy, #Greece. and thanks to @mtmalinen .
@jeuasommenulle @macrodesiac_ @amlivemon @shaun_riordan @nglinsman (1/12) https://twitter.com/RobertMCutler/status/1288894868681629696

The #RecoveryFund solved two #EU problems: being seen to do something, and have members sing off the same book. But little else: even here in Italy, many people (myself included), wanted #Rutte to be tough on spending checks.(2/12)

why? not the fund itself. Each year, Italian public spending dwarves any resources coming off that. What I wanted was someone to say to Italian politics: " you can't come here to negotiate 50 bn relief while simply applying our best practices you'd save 100 bn PER YEAR!" (3/12)

Instead, at all level, the past is in the past. Like a formerly rich Count, everyone used his Rolls Royce to go to the thrift shop. Strasbourg is safe, #CAP is untouched, #GreenNewDeal is an investment....you know the drill.(4/12)

Since that doesn't solve the problem, tensions will come back, hence a small discussion on what juicy debates will com next year, because I suggested that #Finland or the #Netherland might be debating a disengage next year. #Rutte is up, Wilders might win, etc. (5/12)

Why did I say that? First off, I am not an expert in law and treaties. Second, having seen #EU legislation from Italy... I do not have to.To misquote a probably apocryphal phrase by a great Italian, "Laws are for the Maid".(6/12)

So many times things that were presented as "principles", "laws"or basic "ideals" were chucked out of the window if expediency was in order. So, my assumption is: #EU law changes fast according to State interests. no enforceable "Grundgesetz"(7/12)

one thing lost fast is free movement. Greeks learned that what you own in a bank is not yours and you can't send it to your cousin still living in Bielefeld, nor can you go there with what you thought you owned. (8/12)

Similarly, the one saving grace of the architecture, the EUR, is not to be trifled with if you are wayward. #Greece first, and Italy maybe, have learned that there is no leaving....because Gresham's law is absolute. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gresham%27s_law (9/12)

My rule of thumb so is: "If, provided you could print your currency overnight, a common sense citizen would stash away that and pay liabilities in the old, you can theoretically leave the #EUR. If the opposite is true, quit babbling".(10/12)

That makes the continuous debate about "Italexit" wryly amusing. Italy can do a successful exit about as much as I can walk to the Moon from here. Does anyone think that Our State would accept tax in new Liras overnight? (11/12)

BUT, that might be credible in, say, Finland and the Netherland. Would it be floated? possibly, I just did. but that's not material: what's important is to see that common sense citizens, even financially numerate, could see it working from day 2. (END)
@galietti82