Should we send our kids back to school? The debate has taken on a hysterical tone, divided largely along party lines. Why are we disagreeing so much? Simply put, our brains are defective. Don’t believe me? Let’s dive in 1/21 #COVID19 #ThursdayThoughts

First, let’s understand how our brains evolved. It’s a mess. Evolution stacks system upon system, often with competing agendas. We are literally of two minds. Our so-called “lizard brain,” the amygdala, and our neocortex, a recently evolved structure found only in mammals. 2/21

Our amygdala is an old structure, appearing 450 million years ago. It regulates emotion. In fact, humans without a functioning amygdala are fearless. The neocortex is all about logic. It’s responsible for mathematics and the wonders of science. See how they might disagree? 3/21

What does this have to do with COVID? It’s all about how our brains determine risk. How do we assess the risk of getting COVID? Or, the risk of dying from it? Or, of permanent disability? Our emotional amygdala and nerdy neocortex evaluate risk very differently. 4/21

This difference in approach means our PERCEIVED risk often differs from the ACTUAL risk. Several triggers tip the “level of risk” decision towards our amygdala, helping it “win the argument” with our neocortex. When it comes to COVID-19, these triggers abound. 5/21

Upon reviewing the literature, risk expert David Ropeik identified 14 factors influencing how we perceive risk. I believe 8 of these clearly explain why we perceive COVID risk differently than the actual risk (particularly as it pertains to our kids). Let’s explore together 6/21

Trust - When people trust officials or the process used to asses a risk, they are less afraid. Do we trust the process and official stance on COVID? Nope. Certainly our level of trust is not the same across party lines. 7/21

Control - If we believe we have control over the outcome, we perceive the risk as being lower. We may not be afraid of driving a car, despite the large number of automobile deaths annually, but have a deep seated fear of flying. When it comes to COVID, we have no control. 8/21

Scope - Cataclysmic events are scarier than chronic conditions. Earthquakes (last night!) and pandemics are scarier than heart disease or diabetes, despite the facts. While COVID-19 has surpassed diabetes, heart disease still dwarfs it at 647,457 deaths per year in the US. 9/21

Awareness - Is the media talking about COVID much? Yeah. Like. Every. Single. Day. This drives higher risk perception. (Many people have highlighted the negativity bias in the media. Check out an attempt to combat this, The Good News Network https://www.goodnewsnetwork.org/ ). 10/21

Imagination - Invisible or hard-to-understand threats are scarier. Does COVID fall in this category. Yeah, in spades. We argued for weeks about why cases were going up and deaths were going down. We continue to argue about masks. Heck, we’re still arguing about everything. 11/21

Age affected - Risks are scarier when they affect children. ’Nuff said. 12/21

Uncertainty - When officials don’t communicate, contradict themselves, or outright lie, we are more afraid. The claims that COVID wouldn’t hit the US, the 180° on mask-wearing, and the reassurances that the threat is behind us have not engendered confidence. 13/21

Familiarity - Novel risks are perceived as more dangerous than familiar threats. Given that we’re dealing with a novel Coronavirus, I’d say “yeah.” Also, do you recall much cocktail conversation about any coronavirus prior to COVID-19? I didn’t think so. 14/21

It's plain as day. We are PERCEIVING the risks of COVID differently depending on our biases. Our amygdala is trouncing our neocortex and we’re making lizard decisions. So, let’s make some neocortical decisions! What are the ACTUAL risks when it comes to our kids? 15/21

FACT: Fewer than 2% of COVID-19 cases across the country are kids under the age of 17 16/21

FACT: Kids are 1/2 as likely to contract it (this is most likely even lower in kids under the age of 10) 17/21

FACT: Only 1 in 5 kids infected with COVID-19 have any clinical symptoms 18/21

FACT: Across seven countries there were only 44 COVID-19 deaths out of over 137 million children 19 and under. That’s a rate of less than 1 in 3 million. 19/21

So, what’s the conclusion? I can only tell you MY conclusion. I’m sending my child back to pre-school. My wife and I believe the social-emotional benefits outweigh the disease risk. Fortunately, I don't have older children where the relative risk assessment is more complex. 20/21

I only ask one thing. Keep this thread in mind when discussing with friends, arguing with colleagues, rage-Tweeting, and most importantly when making YOUR decision. Let’s stop acting like lizards, and start making neocortical decisions instead. Stay safe. 21/21