Read on Twitter
YPRR is just YPT and targets/route run (TPRR). It's the cool thing now to hate on YPT since YPRR is such a better "efficiency" stat.
I'd argue TPRR is also an efficiency stat, but not in the way we usually refer to efficiency.
But YPRR is just TPRR plus noise.
I'd argue TPRR is also an efficiency stat, but not in the way we usually refer to efficiency.
But YPRR is just TPRR plus noise.
Here are a bunch of year over year correlations from PFF data I dug into this past weekend
I was thinking about doing something with this, but then instead of announcing some great new finding I did this thing called googling, and it's no surprise @fbgchase wrote about this way back in 2014: https://www.footballperspective.com/yards-per-route-run-yards-per-target-and-targets-per-route-run/
And @IR_DannyT followed up with more info, also in 2014: https://intentionalrounding.com/when-do-yards-per-route-run-targets-per-route-run-and-yards-per-target-stabilize/
What's clear across the board is TPRR is superior to YPRR, which is to say that YPRR is mostly just measuring that targets are good, which has been known for like two decades.
I will say this: TPRR should be used a lot more in FF analysis. And it's my opinion that targets are earned and this is a great indicator of players who are good at earning them.
So go forth and use that.
So go forth and use that.
But the flip side is guys who pop in YPRR who don't have the TPRR to back it up and had a bunch of YAC in a small sample are not a good use of YPRR imo. Renfrow, interestingly, has a strong TPRR. Fant does not.
Top 10 WR TPRR last year, min 250 routes:
1. Thomas
2. Adams
3. Julio
4. Nuk
5. Tyreek
6. Keenan
7. ARob
8. Hilton
9. Alshon
10. Edelman
1. Thomas
2. Adams
3. Julio
4. Nuk
5. Tyreek
6. Keenan
7. ARob
8. Hilton
9. Alshon
10. Edelman
TE is a little wonky bc route totals can differ substantially, plus correlations would suggest efficiency matters more, but
Top 12 TE TPRR, min 100 routes:
1. Andrews
2. Kittle
3. Higbee
4. Dissly
5. Waller
6. Ebron
7. Kelce
8. Ertz
9. Engram
10. Everett
11. Jarwin
12. Goedert
Top 12 TE TPRR, min 100 routes:
1. Andrews
2. Kittle
3. Higbee
4. Dissly
5. Waller
6. Ebron
7. Kelce
8. Ertz
9. Engram
10. Everett
11. Jarwin
12. Goedert
Top 12 RB TPRR, min 100 routes:
1. DeAndre Washington
2. Ekeler
3. Cohen
4. Kamara
5. Jaylen Samuels
6. James White
7. Hines
8. McKissic
9. Melvin Gordon
10. Conner
11. Chris Thompson
12. CMC
Dalvin's 13, followed by Rex Burkhead, Kareem Hunt and... Ronald Jones
1. DeAndre Washington
2. Ekeler
3. Cohen
4. Kamara
5. Jaylen Samuels
6. James White
7. Hines
8. McKissic
9. Melvin Gordon
10. Conner
11. Chris Thompson
12. CMC
Dalvin's 13, followed by Rex Burkhead, Kareem Hunt and... Ronald Jones
Someone asked for leaders from a longer timeframe, so here ya go. You'll see the YPT can be all over the place but even legit bad ones have good YPRR because they have good TPRR.
That's why it's easy to buy YPRR > YPT (bc it is). But really it's just because of TPRR.
That's why it's easy to buy YPRR > YPT (bc it is). But really it's just because of TPRR.
I guess this is where "Thanks for coming to my TED talk" should go. Happy to answer questions.
I built this little lookup tool that's pretty fun. I've been on the wrong breakout TE.
