Read on Twitter
Thread 1/8: In these dog days of summer, we see in our weekly @PolicyLabCHOP #COVID19 models the fog of a shifting pandemic in the U.S. & increased noise from testing delays. But the addition of 228 counties has helped sharpen the picture of where we are: https://policylab.chop.edu/blog/covid-19-outlook-shifting-winds-and-inconsistent-signals
2/8: We see increasing evidence of transmission risk accumulating near large cities, making us suspicious that people returning from summer holidays are conferring new risk to our cities & suburbs. Could help explain quickly increasing cases in #DC, #Baltimore & #Philly
5/8: As more school districts opt for virtual learning to start the year, the Northeast should strengthen their #socialdistancing now if they hope for in-person classes. Many areas of #MA have had elevated transmission risk in the last 2 weeks, even if their counts are still low
6/8: And college towns like #Tuscaloosa have large reservoirs of circulating cases; even if stable in our forecasts, it feels like the calm before the storm when students return to campus.
7/8: Meanwhile, a natural experiment testing theories of whether #NYC has herd immunity, may be unfolding. The Bronx registered a R of 1.2 in the last 2 weeks (even with low counts & positivity rates), but how much can they grow, given the high rates of infection in the spring?
8/8: With students on the move, pandemic fatigue abundant & cities facing round 2, we will be learning a lot about the next phase of #COVID19 in the U.S., while anticipating the effects that cooler temperatures could have on spread of this virus in the fall
