Excess mortality figures released by @ONS today are very interesting. Top line: UK has the highest figures of all the countries looked at. Not good. But what's especially interesting is that this includes countries who had much higher excess mortality at the peak than the UK. 1/
In other words, UK fared worst not because it had the most cases at the peak but b/c it took longest to get those numbers down. Lots of possible reasons for this, but two seem key:
1. Less strict lockdown than elsewhere
2. Major problem of transmission in hospitals & care homes
Reason 2 would also be supported by @ONS finding that UK had highest excess mortality above over-65. But only just. The difference between UK and other countries is much bigger when it comes to excess deaths among under-65s.
Why might that be? Again, lots of possible reasons but 2 spring to mind.
1. Obesity. Linked to C-19 mortality and far higher in UK than elsewhere.
2. Softer lockdown - when working age ppl in many countries were told to stay at home, many in UK were told to keep going to work.
Last interesting finding is that UK excess mortality was much more evenly spread across the country than in other nations, where it centred in particular regions. Suggests virus was already established across the UK by the time lockdown was introduced.
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