The -32.9% GDP number will grab the headlines. But remember this is "seasonally adjusted at annual rate."
We can convert that to a quarterly rate of -9.5%, but here's another number to consider: -7%. That's the single quarter, not seasonally adjusted change in GDP
-7%
We can convert that to a quarterly rate of -9.5%, but here's another number to consider: -7%. That's the single quarter, not seasonally adjusted change in GDP
-7%
-7% comes from Appendix B of the GDP release (also Table 8.1.6 of interactive tables)
Normally, we care "how did GDP perform compared to a normal second quarter?"
That's what seasonal adjustments show us
But right now we might want to know "how much did GDP actually contract?"
Normally, we care "how did GDP perform compared to a normal second quarter?"
That's what seasonal adjustments show us
But right now we might want to know "how much did GDP actually contract?"
I post these numbers not to try to downplay the economic harm. -7% in one quarter is bad! Worse on record! But it's also more accurate
Using the same NSA, one quarter change, here are components:
Consumption: -7.4%
Investment: -12.6% (non-res: -3.0%)
Net Ex: +7.6%
Govt: +3.3%
Using the same NSA, one quarter change, here are components:
Consumption: -7.4%
Investment: -12.6% (non-res: -3.0%)
Net Ex: +7.6%
Govt: +3.3%
To continue with even more detail (still using NSA data), looking at the Consumption category, one quarter change:
Goods (overall): +3.1%
Durable Goods: +9.3%
Non-Durable Goods: +0.2%
Services: -12.0%
Goods (overall): +3.1%
Durable Goods: +9.3%
Non-Durable Goods: +0.2%
Services: -12.0%
Unfortunately in the NSA data, there is no more detail breaking down services into categories. But we can turn to the Seasonally Adjusted data to get some more detail (but keep in mind this is now AT AN ANNUAL rate, which you can very roughly divide by 4 to get quarterly)
Services (I will do change since 2019Q4, to get the pre-pandemic level, once again AT ANNUAL RATE)
Household consumption (services overall): -18.6%
Health care: -25.3%
Transportation: -41.3%
Recreation: -54.4%
Food and accommodation: -40.1%
Household consumption (services overall): -18.6%
Health care: -25.3%
Transportation: -41.3%
Recreation: -54.4%
Food and accommodation: -40.1%
And just so we are clear that I am not always trying to downplay bad numbers, I have previously written that the unemployment rate actually *understates* how bad the labor market is performing right now: https://uca.edu/business/2020/07/07/whats-the-real-unemployment-rate/
Also, because 3rd quarter numbers (released one week before the election!) are likely to be very huge on UPSIDE, it's important to start preparing the general public to properly contextualize it
NY Times has been good on accurately showing numbers: https://twitter.com/bencasselman/status/1288460034582745088
NY Times has been good on accurately showing numbers: https://twitter.com/bencasselman/status/1288460034582745088